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Sunday MLB Sharp Report (4-4)

April 4, 2021 02:51 AM

The Final Four is over and now we have our Championship Game set for Monday night. Yesterday we saw favorites go 2-0 straight up but just 1-1 ATS, with Baylor (-5) crushing Houston 78-59 and Gonzaga (-14) beating UCLA 93-90 a buzzer beater, but failing to cover for the first time in the NCAA Tournament. Overs went a perfect 2-0. Up until yesterday, unders had dominated March Madness, cashing at roughly 60%. 

Gonzaga has opened as a 4.5-point favorite over Baylor in the Championship game. Gonzaga is -210 on the moneyline. Baylor is + 180. The total is 160. 

Here are the updated NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds at BetMGM

Timme -120

Suggs + 115

Mitchell + 400

Butler + 800

Ayayi + 1600

Kispert + 2000

Teague + 2000

We will have a full Sharp Report on the Title Game in Monday's newsletter.

Now back to Sunday, where we have 7 NBA games, 12 MLB games and 6 NHL games to choose from. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Jonanthan Von Tobel and Will Hill along with our good friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss several MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

1:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (0-2) vs Philadelphia Phillies (2-0)

The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series, winning 3-2 as -125 favorites on Opening Day and then winning 4-0 on Saturday as + 100 underdogs. Today, the Braves will start young righty Ian Anderson (3-2, 1.95 ERA in 2020) while the Phillies counter with veteran Zach Eflin (4-2, 3.97 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as -130 road favorites. The public says the Braves are the better team and there's no way they lose three in a row. However, sharps aren't falling into the Gambler's Fallacy trap. We've seen the Braves dip from -130 to -115, signaling respected money riding the Phillies to keep it going as a short home dog (+ 115 to + 105). Divisional dogs like the Phillies are 11-8 (58%) to start the season.

1:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (1-1) vs New York Yankees (1-1)

These AL East foes have split the first two games of the series, with the Jays winning 3-2 on Opening Day as + 170 dogs and the Yankees winning 5-3 on Saturday as -165 favorites. In today's rubber game the Jays send out 2016 first round pick T.J. Zeuch (1-0, 1.59 ERA in 2020) and the Yankees will start Domingo German, who missed all of last season but went 18-4 (4.03 ERA) in 2019. This line opened with the Yankees listed as a hefty -155 home favorite. Respected money has been all over New York at home against a rookie pitcher, which has steamed the Yankees from -155 to -165. This total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115. The under is 2-0 in the first two games of the series.

1:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (2-0) vs Boston Red Sox (0-2)

The Orioles have won the first two games of this series, outscoring Boston by a combined margin of 7-2 and cashing as juicy underdogs both times (+ 150 and + 153). The Orioles will give the ball to lefty Bruce Zimmerman (0-0, 7.71 ERA in 2020) while the Red Sox will start veteran righty and offseason addition Garrett Richards (2-2, 4.03 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -165 home favorite. Respected money looks to be backing the Red Sox  to avoid the sweep. We've seen this line get steamed up from Red Sox -165 to -175. The total opened at 10 and has already dropped to 9.5 at most shops, signaling some respected under money. The under is 2-0 thus far in the series. 

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