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Sunday MLB Sharp Report (4-25)

April 25, 2021 04:04 AM

Today, the weekend wraps up with 16 MLB games, 7 NBA games and 4 NHL games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill along with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

2:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (9-11) at St. Louis Cardinals (10-10)

The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this NL Central division series, winning 5-4 as -108 favorites on Friday and 2-0 as -112 favorites on Saturday. In today's series finale, the Reds give the ball to veteran Luis Castillo (1-1, 6.05 ERA) while the Cardinals start young stud Jack Flaherty (3-0, 3.80 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a short -120 home favorite. We've seen pros ride the hot hand and lay the chalk with the Cardinals, which has pushed St. Louis up to -126. The Cardinals have value as a favorite with a low total (7). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Reds are in a tailspin. After starting the season 9-5 they have now lost six straight games. The total opened at 7.5 and pros immediately hit the under with the hook, dropping the line down to 7. The Cardinals lit up Castillo on Opening Day. Castillo gave up 8 runs on 8 hits in just 3.1 innings pitched, with the Cards winning 11-6. 

2:20 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (12-8) at Chicago Cubs (10-10)

The Brewers and Cubs have exchanged wins and losses in the first two games of this series. The Cubs dominated the opener 15-2, easily winning as -155 home favorites. Then we saw the Brewers bounce back with a 4-3 win on Saturday as a short -105 dog. In today's rubber match, Milwaukee starts ace Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 1.96 ERA) while the Cubs have veteran righty Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.86 ERA) on the bump. This line opened with the Brewers listed as -140 road favorites. The public is happy to back Milwaukee, who has a better record, is coming off a win and has their ace on the hill. However, despite this lopsided support the Brew Crew have fallen from -140 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros jumping on Chicago and the plus-money payout (+ 130 to + 120). The Cubs have value as a divisional dog (12% ROI this season) and a home dog who made the playoffs the previous season (9% ROI). Keep an eye on the total in this one (it has yet to be released). The forecast calls for low 40s with 10 MPH winds blowing directly in from center, which provide an edge to the under. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, going 12-7-1. 

3:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (10-10) at Colorado Rockies (7-13)

These non-division foes have split the first two games of the series, with the Rockies winning the opener 5-4 as -124 home favorites and the Phillies winning 7-5 on Saturday as -175 road favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Phillies trot out righty Chase Anderson (0-2, 4.15 ERA) and the Rockies counter with hard-throwing Jon Gray (2-1, 2.42 ERA). This line opened with Colorado listed as a modest -120 home favorite. We've seen the Rockies fall from -120 to -115, signaling some respected money leaning on Philadelphia as a plus-money dog (+ 110 to + 105). The Phillies have value as a dog off a win (7% ROI this season), a dog with a line move in their favor (6% ROI) and a road dog (15% ROI). Philadelphia also fits the "dog sweet spot" as dogs + 140 or less have 79-72 (51%), good for a 10% ROI. The Phillies also match as a dog with a high total (11). Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the more expected runs scored often leads to more variance and upset opportunities. 

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