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Sunday MLB Sharp Report (4-18)

April 18, 2021 04:57 AM

The weekend wraps up with 16 MLB games, 8 NBA games and 6 NHL games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Jonanthan Von Tobel and Will Hill along with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

1:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (7-7) at Philadelphia Phillies (7-7)

These non-division NL foes have split the first two games of the series, with the Phillies winning the opener 9-2 as -140 home favorites and the Cardinals bouncing back with a 9-4 victory on Saturday as a -105 pick'em play. In this afternoon's rubber game, the Cardinals send out righty John Gant (0-1, 3.00 ERA) while the Phillies counter with ace Aaron Nola (0-1, 3.45 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a hefty -170 home favorite. Sharps seem to like this matchup for the Phillies as we've seen the home team get steamed up to -180. Teams with steam of 10-cents or more in non-division games are 25-19 (57%) this season. The Phillies also have value as a big favorite with a low total. Historically, the fewer amount of expected runs scored benefits favorites as the runs are more likely to come from the "better" team. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total opened at 8 and some books have already dipped down to 7.5. The forecast calls for low 60s with wind blowing in from left field at 5-10 MPH.

1:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (5-10) at Washington Nationals (5-7)

This is the fourth and final game of the series. The Diamondbacks won the opener 11-6 as + 165 road favorites but the Nats have rebounded to win the past two days (1-0 as -190 favorites and yesterday 6-2 as -112 favorites). The Snakes will start veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 11.20 ERA) and the Nats trot out ace Stephen Strasburg (0-1, 6.30 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a heavy -200 home favorite and the Diamondbacks a juicy + 180 dog. The public is rushing to the window to back Strasburg and fade Bumgarner, yet we've seen this line tumble a bit from Washington -200 to -190. Some shops are inching closer to -185. This signals some respected money buying low on the Snakes at a big plus money payout (+ 180 to + 170). Arizona has value as a road dog with a high total (8.5). High totals benefit dogs as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. Washington is just 1-3 against lefties this season. 

2:35 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (7-8) at Texas Rangers (6-9)

The Orioles have taken the first two games of this series, beating the Rangers 5-2 as + 115 dogs and 6-1 as + 125 dogs. Today Baltimore goes for the sweep. The Orioles give the ball to lefty ace John Means (1-0, 2.16 ERA) and the Rangers send out veteran righty Kyle Gibson (2-0, 4.05 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a short -110 home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes as it's the shortest favorite the Rangers have been all series (previously -125 and -135). This speaks to how even these teams are for today's matchup. Gambler's Fallacy says these teams are even and the Rangers won't get swept at home. However, respected money seems to be riding the red-hot Orioles as we've seen this line move ever so slightly in favor of the Birds (+ 100 to -105). The Orioles have value as a dog off a win and a dog with a high total. The Orioles are 6-2 on the road this season. The Rangers are just 2-6 at home. The total is 8.5 with heavy -125 juice to the under. The under has cashed in both games this series. The under is 8-7 in Orioles games this season and 8-6-1 in Rangers games.

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