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Sunday MLB Sharp Report (4-11)

April 11, 2021 12:26 AM

Today, the weekend wraps up with 14 MLB games, 10 NBA games and 7 NHL games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Jonathan Von Tobel and Will Hill along with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action.

4:05 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (3-6) at San Francisco Giants (5-3)

The Giants have taken the first two games of this NL West series, winning 3-1 as -150 favorites on Friday and 4-3 as -180 favorites on Saturday. In today's series finale, the Rockies send out German Marquez (0-0, 3.60 ERA) while the Giants counter with Anthony DeSclafani (0-0, 1.80 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a slight -115 home favorite. Respected money has come down on the red-hot Giants to complete the sweep, pushing San Francisco up to -120. The Giants have value as a favorite with a low total (8). Historically, the fewer amount of expected runs scored makes it more likely that the runs come from the "better" team, which is why low totals benefit favorites. Some books are juicing up the under 8 to -115, signaling another possible lower-scoring game. The under is 2-0 so far this series. Both of the teams have been profitable to the under this season, with the Rockies 6-3 to the under and the Giants 6-2. Divisional unders are 45-35 (56%) on the season. 

4:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (6-2) at Arizona Diamondbacks (3-6)

These two non-division foes have split the first two games of the series, with the Reds winning the opener 6-5 as -148 favorites and the Diamondbacks bouncing back with an 8-3 victory on Saturday as + 112 underdogs. In today's rubber match, the Reds trot out Jose De Leon (0-0, 3.60 ERA) and the Diamondbacks give the ball to Luke Weaver (0-0, 4.76 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as short -120 road favorites. The public takes one look at the won-loss records of both teams and is happy to back the "superior" Reds. However, despite a majority of bets laying the chalk, we've seen Cincinnati fall from -120 to -115. Some shops are inching down to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Snakes (+ 110 to + 105). The Diamondbacks have value as a dog with a high total and a dog with a line move in their favor (22-18, 55% this season). We could also be looking at a higher scoring game as the total is 9 with heavy over juice (-120). The over is 7-1 in Reds games this season. The under is 5-4 in Diamondbacks games. 

7:08 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (5-3) at Atlanta Braves (4-4)

This Sunday Night Baseball showdown features two NL East rivals trending in opposite directions. After starting the season 4-0, the Phillies have dropped two straight to the Braves and are now 1-3 over their last four. On the flip side, the Braves started the season 0-4 but have won four straight games since to claw back to .500. In tonight's series finale, the Phillies give the ball to Matt Moore (0-0, 5.40 ERA) and the Braves turn to Drew Smyly (0-0, 3.00 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a hefty -150 home favorite. Sharps are backing the Braves to complete the sweep, which has pushed Atlanta up to -160. Home favorites -150 or more are 24-14 (63%) this season. Teams with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor are 35-23 (60%). Also, we've seen home favorites perform well on Sunday Night Baseball, cashing at roughly 62% over the past decade. 

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