Sunday March Madness Sharp Report


All good things must come to an end.

The most exciting sports betting weekend of the year wraps up today with the final Round of 32. It also marks the end of my Vegas trip. I will be flying back to Boston today.

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City. 

Until then, let's examine where the smart money is leaning for a trio of March Madness matchups today...


2:40 p.m. ET: Ohio State vs Villanova

This is the South Region second round. Ohio State (20-11) is the 7-seed and just beat Loyola Chicago 54-41, easily covering as a 1-point favorite. On the other hand, Villanova (27-7) is the 2-seed and just dominated Delaware 80-60, covering as 15-point favorites. This line opened with Villanova listed as a 4.5-point favorite. Sharps have laid the chalk with Villanova, pushing the Wildcats up from -4.5 to -5.5. Ken Pom has Villanova winning by five points (70-66). He has Villanova ranked 12th and Ohio State 30th. Pro bettors have also hit this over, raising the total from 131.5 to 132.5. 


6:10 p.m. ET: Iowa State vs Wisconsin

This is the Midwest Region second round. Iowa State (21-12) is the 11-seed and just upset LSU 59-54 in the opening round, winning outright as a 3.5-point dog. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (25-7) is the 3-seed and just crushed aside Colgate 67-60 but failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point favorite. Respected money has steamed the Badgers, driving Wisconsin up from -3 to -5. Teams with line movement in their favor are 22-13 ATS (63%) this NCAA Tournament. Ken Pom only has Wisconsin winning by one point (64-63), which means the betting market is much more bullish on the Badgers than the advanced analytics. 


8:40 p.m. ET: Texas vs Purdue

This is the East Region second round. Texas (22-11) enters as the 6-seed and just beat Virginia Tech 81-73 in the opening round, covering as 1.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Purdue (28-7) is the 3-seed and just crushed Yale 78-56, covering as 16.5-point favorites. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 3.5-point favorite. We've seen several shops fall from 3.5 to 3, signaling wiseguy money grabbing Texas plus the points. Ken Pom has Purdue winning by one point (69-68), which provides actionable value on the Longhorns at the current number.  

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.



Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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