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Sunday College Hoops Sharp Report

March 21, 2021 01:57 AM

March Madness continues today with the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. We also have 10 NBA games and 4 NHL games to choose from. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN contributor Will Hill and our good friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

Yesterday, we saw NCAA Tournament dogs bark up a storm, going 11-4 ATS in Saturday's Round of 64 action. Unders also had a profitable day, going 9-5-1. Overall, it's been a great NCAA Tournament for contrarian bettors. The public loves betting favorites and overs while contrarians love backing dogs and unders. Including the first four matchups, dogs are now 22-13 ATS (63%) in the NCAA Tournament. Unders are 21-13-1 (62%). 

Will dogs and unders continue to dominate as we head into Sunday's Second Round action? 

Let's discuss where money is flowing for a trio of Big Dance games today...

7:10 p.m. ET: Rutgers vs Houston

This Midwest Region matchup features 10-seed Rutgers (16-11) against 2-seed Houston (25-3). Rutgers just took down 7-seed Clemson 60-56 in the opening round, covering as 2.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Houston just crushed 15-seed Cleveland State 87-56, easily covering as 20.5-point favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 9-point favorite. The public has no problem laying the points with Houston. However, we've seen this line dip from 9 to 8.5. Some shops are even down to 8. This signals respected money grabbing Rutgers plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Ken Pom has Houston winning by eight points, which still provides value on Rutgers getting the hook. Rutgers has value as a slow paced dog (67.6). Dogs that play at a slow pace lead to fewer positions and lower scoring games, which levels the playing field and makes it harder for the favorite to cover. Respected money has also targeted this under, dropping the total from 132.5 to 131.5.

7:45 p.m. ET: Oral Roberts vs Florida

This South Region showdown pits Cinderella 15-seed Oral Roberts (17-10) against 7-seed Florida (15-9). Oral Roberts just pulled off the biggest upset of the first round, beating 2-seed Ohio State 75-72, winning outright as 15-point dogs. Florida also pulled off an upset, beating 10-seed Virginia Tech 75-70, winning outright as 1.5-point dogs. This line opened with Florida listed as a 7.5-point favorite. The public is all over Oral Roberts as a dog off a big upset win. However, sharp money seems to be fading the trendy dog and backing contrarian favorite Florida as we've seen the Gators move from -7.5 to -8.5. Ken Pom has Florida winning by ten points, which supports this sharp line move to the Gators. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 149.5 to 148.5. 

8:45 p.m. ET: North Texas vs Villanova 

This South Region showdown pits 13-seed North Texas (18-9) against 5-seed Villanova (17-6). North Texas just shocked 4-seed Purdue 78-69 in the opening round, winning outright as 7.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Villanova just took care of 12-seed Winthrop 73-63, covering as 6-point favorites. This line opened with Villanova listed as a 6.5-point favorite. Sharp action has poured in on underdog North Texas, dropping the Mean Green from + 6.5 to + 5.5. Ken Pom has Villanova winning this game by five points, which still provides actionable value on North Texas at the current number. North Texas will lean on their smothering defense to slow down Villanova. The Mean Green are only allowing 61.5 PPG, which is 11th-best in the country. The total is 127. Both teams play at a slow pace, with North Texas 62.8 and Villanova 64.6. 

More Sunday Line Moves

West Virginia -3.5 to -4 vs Syracuse

Wisconsin-Baylor Under 138 to 137

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