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Sunday College Hoops Sharp Report (3-7)

March 7, 2021 01:54 AM

Today, the weekend wraps up with another loaded betting slate filled with 20-plus college basketball games, 8 NHL games and, last but not least, the NBA All-Star game, Skills Challenge, 3-Point Contest and Dunk Contest. 

For extensive betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN contributor Will Hill and Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

Until then, let's discuss where money is flowing for a trio of college hoops games today..

12 p.m. ET: Florida at Tennessee

This early afternoon SEC grudge match pits two conference rivals looking to bounce back from disappointing losses. Florida (13-7) just fell to Missouri 72-70, losing straight up as a 4-point home favorite. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Gators. Similarly, Tennessee (16-7) is coming off a 77-72 loss to Auburn, losing straight up as a 8.5-point road favorite. The Volunteers have struggled a bit down the stretch, going just 2-3 over their past five games. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public has no problem laying the points with the Vols at home. However, we've seen this line fall from 5 to 4.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Gators plus the points. Florida has value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor. Ken Pom has Tennessee winning by three points, which provides actionable value to the Gators at the current number. These teams met back on January 19th and the Gators dominated the Vols 75-49. 

12:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin at Iowa

This Big Ten showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. Wisconsin (16-10, ranked 25th) is in a tailspin, losing two straight and four of their last five. It's been a tale of two halves for the Badgers, who started the season 10-2 but have gone just 6-8 since. On the flip side, Iowa (19-7, ranked 5th) has been red-hot down the stretch, winning two straight and six of their last seven. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 6-point home favorite. Sharps aren't outthinking themselves on this one. They've rushed to the window to lay the points with the Hawkeyes, which has pushed Iowa from -6 to -6.5. The -6.5 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further rise to -7. Ken Pom has Iowa winning this game by seven points. Big Ten home favorites in conference play are 65-24 (73%) straight up this season. Iowa is 13-2 at home. Wisconsin is 5-5 on the road. Wisconsin is 1-3 ATS as a dog this season. Iowa is 12-7 ATS as a favorite. These teams met on February 18th and Iowa won 77-62, easily winning outright as a 1.5-point road dog. Iowa will lean on their offensive firepower in this one. The Hawkeyes are averaging 85.3 PPG this season. The Badgers are averaging 69.8 PPG. 

1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati at East Carolina

Both of these American Athletic foes have struggled as of late and are looking to get back on track heading into the conference tournament. Cincinnati (9-10) has lost two straight, falling to Vanderbilt and Memphis. Prior to the losing skid, the Bearcats had won six of their previous seven games. Meanwhile, East Carolina (8-9) has been in a downward spiral.. After starting the season 7-1, East Carolina has gone just 1-8 since. The Pirates also had five games postponed due to COVID during the second half. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public sees two sub-.500 teams and doesn't know who to take. But pros have leaned on the road favorite Bearcats, which has pushed Cincinnati from -1 to -1.5. Ken Pom has Cincinnati winning by one point. With such a short spread in a virtual coin-flip game, bettors backing Cincy may prefer to back the Bearcats on the moneyline as opposed to laying the points. Ken Pom has Cincinnati ranked 119th in the country and East Carolina 142nd. East Carolina is just 2-9 in conference play. Cincinnati is 7-6.

More Sunday Moves

Oregon -5 to -5.5 at Oregon State

Nebraska-Northwestern Over 137.5 to 140

Texas Tech-Baylor Under 140.5 to 137.5

Texas-TCU Under 141.5 to 137.5

Winthrop -11 to -11.5 vs Campbell

Maryland -5.5 to -6 Penn State

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