Sunday College Hoops Sharp Action Report for Michigan State-Maryland, Iowa-Ohio State and Pittsburgh-NC State

February 28, 2021 01:11 AM

The weekend wraps up with another loaded betting slate filled with roughly 20 college basketball games, 9 NBA games and 6 NHL games. For extensive betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by William Hill, Jonathan Von Tobel and Thomas Gable.

Until then, let's discuss where money is flowing for a trio of college hoops games today.

2 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Maryland

Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings and are desperate to post another win to improve their NCAA Tournament resumes. Michigan State (13-9) is getting hot at the right time, winning three straight games over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State. The Spartans were dogs in all three games and won outright. Meanwhile, Maryland (14-10) is just as hot, winning four straight against Minnesota, Rutgers and Nebraska twice. This line opened with Maryland listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is backing the Terps at home, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. Some books are inching toward 2. This sharp reverse line movement signals pro money grabbing the points with the Spartans. Michigan State has value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor.

4 p.m. ET: Iowa at Ohio State

This Big Ten showdown features two conference rivals and top-10 teams looking to rebound from losses. Iowa (17-7, ranked 9th) just fell to Michigan 79-57, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Hawkeyes. Similarly, Ohio State (18-6, ranked 4th) has dropped two straight, falling to Michigan and Michigan State. The loss snapped a 7-game win streak for the Buckeyes. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a short 2-point home favorite. The public says give me the points with Iowa, yet we've seen this line move toward Ohio State -2 to -2.5. Some shops are even inching toward -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement with respected money laying the points with the Buckeyes. Big 10 home favorites in conference play are 58-21 (73%) straight up on the season, so if you're wary of laying the points Ohio State may have value as a moneyline play. We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 160.5 to 158.5.


4 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh at NC State

These ACC opponents are trending in completely opposite directions. Pittsburgh (9-9) has dropped four straight games while NC State (11-9) has won three straight, including a huge 68-61 upset win over Virginia as 11.5-point dogs their last time out. This line opened with NC State listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Respected money has rushed to the window to lay the points with the Wolfpack, pushing this line up from -6.5 to -7. A major storyline here is a pair of top-line opt-outs for Pittsburgh. The Panthers' 2nd-leading scoring Au'diese Toney (14.4 PPG) just announced he was leaving the team a few days ago. This comes on the heels of 3rd-leading scorer Xavier Johnson (14.2 PPG) also leaving the program. Both players are entering the transfer portal. Pittsburgh will be without roughly 40% of their scoring with Toney and Johnson now gone.

More Sunday Moves

Butler + 12 to + 11.5 vs Villanova

Memphis-Cincinnati Over 138.5 to 140.5

Quinnipiac + 3 to + 2.5 at Marist

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