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Studying CBB transition to league play

December 28, 2021 09:27 PM

The turn of the calendar to a new year usually means the transition to full-time conference play in college basketball. The first month and a half typically is marked by unfamiliar opponents, neutral-court contests and tournament play, with unusual rest periods between games. For the rest of the season, the schedule is far more stable as teams play known conference foes in familiar environments with regular scheduling. Most teams won’t face many — or, in some cases, any — nonconference opponents again until the postseason. All of this presents a great opportunity for bettors to study the data that analyzes how teams fare once they get to conference play to find out which teams transition best and worst.

Over the last few years, certain teams have consistently overperformed in conference play as compared with nonconference games, and vice versa. Some teams’ pace of play is also affected greatly by the transition to league competition.

I have logged results of all games with betting lines for all 358 Division I teams for the last 4 1/2 seasons, or since the start of the 2017-18 campaign. I have compared the numbers between conference and nonconference play, zeroing in on some of the best- and worst-performing teams in various location and line situations of conference play. Hopefully these findings will help you get your 2022 college basketball betting off to a great start.

Top 10 Teams Whose Outright Win Percentage Improves Most From Nonconference To Conference Play

1. Prairie View A&M: + 75.9 percent

2. North Carolina A&T: + 56.3 percent

3. Jackson State: + 52.8 percent

4. North Carolina Central: + 52.6 percent

5. Florida A&M: + 50.1 percent

6. Radford: + 47.5 percent

7. Texas Southern: + 46.9 percent

8. Bellarmine: + 46.4 percent

9. Northwestern State: + 43.6 percent

10. Eastern Washington: + 42.7 percent

Top 10 Teams Whose Outright Win Percentage Declines Most From Nonconference To Conference Play

1. DePaul: -53.0 percent

2. Minnesota: -49.6 percent

3. Wake Forest: -47.7 percent

4. TCU: -45.4 percent

5. Iowa State: -44.8 percent

6. St. John’s: -43.8 percent

7. Pittsburgh: -42.3 percent

8. Vanderbilt: -41.9 percent

9. East Carolina: -41.9 percent

10. Northwestern: -41.5 percent

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