STRENGTH RATINGS TUTORIAL

By Steve Makinen  () 

Answering some questions I have received lately, here is a quick explanation of each of the three Strength Ratings offered each week for every game in the various sports we cover:

The Power Ratings (PR) are my own manually adjusted ratings updated after every game based upon analysis of live action and box scores

The Effective Strength Ratings (EffStr) are purely statistical ratings, using the teams’ key stats against schedule strength and their previous opponents’ averages. These are also adjusted for any key injuries the team had endured or faced against.

The Bettors Ratings (BtrRtg) are a quantified interpretation of how bettors perceive teams based upon how lines of recent games have moved and closed.

Some important points: 1) On injuries situations where a key line move player is listed as doubtful or out, I have already built the adjustments into the ratings. Where the player is questionable or probable, I have not, so if that player ends up missing then the reader needs to account for those on

their own. 2) Each morning I do go back and make postgame adjustments to the ratings based upon results, closing lines, and injuries for the purpose of future numbers. 3) Point spread projections (proj) are built for the home team. In other words, if the number is positive, that means the road team would be favored.

In general, the best practice is to use the ratings and scores (scr) as a basis of where to expect the lines to be when they come out and/or they close. While I stand behind the Strength Ratings’ for their quality, validity, and the methods by which each is built, tracking the records against the actual lines is the only way to verify the success rates of each.

Over the course of a day or week, the lines for some games will change. Unless a player is out, the ratings only change on a day to day basis based on games played. I personally update the ratings daily, but obviously for uses in the Point Spread Weekly, I cannot present the daily changes. It is in “overadjustments’ by oddsmakers daily that a lot of value can be found.

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close