Steve Makinen: My 20 college football season win-total bets

USATSI_17227028

I’ve spent the last six weeks or so revealing the information I study ahead of each college football season. After going through the coaching changes, Stability Scores, transitional systems and recruiting rankings, plus playing out the schedule by my power ratings, I’ve locked in on 20 season win-total bets. 

If you missed any of the key information I’ve released over the last month and a half, go back to the Point Spread Weekly archive and look through Issues 41 through 45. Most or all of it will also be available in the upcoming VSiN College Football Betting Guide, due out at the end of July.

Before revealing my 2022 plays, here’s how I went 7-3 on my 2021 plays released at this same time a year ago:

Buffalo Under 8.5 wins — Win: This one was a freebie from bookmakers, as the Bulls won just four games. They won all four times they were favored and lost all eight times they were catching points.

Louisiana-Monroe Over 1.5 wins — Win: This was a fairly easy winner, as the Warhawks reached two wins in their sixth game and went on to go 4-8.

Marshall Under 7.5 wins — Win: I had to sweat this one out until Game 12. Marshall was 7-4 but lost as a 1.5-point favorite to Western Kentucky at home.

Maryland Over 5.5 wins — Win: Another sweat. Maryland crushed Rutgers in the final week of the regular season to finish .500. The Terps then routed Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl. 

Northwestern Under 6.5 wins — Win: Northwestern was one of four teams in all of college football to return fewer than 10 starters. It was a long season as the Wildcats finished 3-9.

Notre Dame Under 9 wins — Loss: Notre Dame outperformed my expectations and finished 11-2. The Irish covered the spread in their final seven regular-season games.

Oregon Over 9 wins — Win: Oregon finished 10-2 in the regular season before losing in the Pac-12 title game and the Alamo Bowl.

Tennessee Under 6 wins — Loss: Tennessee finished 7-5, only the second time since 2016 in which the Vols won that many regular-season games.

Toledo Over 8 wins — Loss: The Rockets went 7-5 in the regular season. Making matters worse, they lost four of those five games as favorites. 

UCLA Over 7 wins — Win: UCLA rallied for an eight-win season after taking its final two games as an underdog. The Bruins’ bowl game was canceled.

Now for my 2022 plays. I’ve doubled the number of wagers because my preseason preparation has revealed more strong and weak spots than usual.

Teams to go Over their DraftKings season win totals

Arizona Over 2.5 wins: Coach Jedd Fisch seems to be at the beginning stages of something good, as he just recruited the program’s best class since its glory days. He also has a competent QB this year in Jayden de Laura. After going 1-11 last season, losing three games by 10 points or fewer to high-quality opponents, I see the Wildcats as one of the more improved teams. My simulations have them winning 3.2 games.

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