Read on for updates betting odds and series predictions. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Thursday’s episode will feature a great conversation about the Stanley Cup Playoffs with hockey oddsmaker Jeff Davis from Circa Sports.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated NHL betting odds, series predictions, and probabilities for Friday, May 5th
Sergei Bobrovsky and the Florida Panthers shocked the hockey world with a come-from-behind win in Game 2, while the Dallas Stars imposed their will over the Seattle Kraken. Here are the latest series odds, predictions, and probabilities for round two of the Stanley Cup Playoffs:
- Florida Panthers (-320) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+250)
- Dallas Stars (-210) vs Seattle Kraken (+180)
- New Jersey Devils (+145) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-170)
- Edmonton Oilers (+115) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-135)
Updated Series Predictions
Florida Panthers take 2-0 series lead
Sergei Bobrovsky looked shaky early in Game 1, and it looked like the Panthers were going to be victimized in Game 2 much like the Lightning were in the first round. The veteran goaltender settled things down, though, and the Panthers grabbed a 3-2 lead by scoring two goals in under a minute at the start of the second period. Surprisingly, Florida never surrendered the lead despite a very strong push from the Maple Leafs.
According to hockey stats website Evolving Hockey, Bobrovsky saved approximately two goals above expected, and he did his best work in the third period when the pressure was on. Samsonov wasn’t bad, but the tying goal had no business finding the back of the net. In the first round, there were games where the Bruins were the better team and they lost because they made a couple of mistakes and the Panthers capitalized. It’s the same story here for the Maple Leafs.
Regardless, Toronto now has a 76 percent chance of being eliminated. It doesn’t feel like the Maple Leafs are out of it, because they played great in Game 2, but that’s in the past and I can’t help but think back to round one when Florida was outplayed in three out of the first four games but managed to outplay the Bruins a lot of the time in the final three games. They were down 3-1 in that series, this time, they’re up 2-0, so if things start to shift in Florida’s favor at all, winning four out of five games becomes a bigger challenge for Toronto.
Updated Series Probabilities
Florida Panthers Win Series: 76% (-317)
- 4 Games: 11%
- 5 Games: 19%
- 6 Games: 17%
- 7 Games: 17%
Toronto Maple Leafs Win Series: 24% (+317)
- 5 Games: 6%
- 6 Games: 14%
- 7 Games: 16%
Florida played another good game at even strength. By the end of the second period, shot attempts were roughly 50-50 and the Panthers had a 60 percent edge in expected goals. The Maple Leafs power play was dangerous, but it went 1 for 3, and is now 1 for 7 in the series. Florida has only had two power play opportunities in two games versus Toronto and while that might raise some questions about the officiating, the Panthers have been getting away with a lot of calls.
Florida closed as high as +170 in Game 1 and +190 Game 2, which were both on the road. DraftKings Sportsbooks currently has the Panthers, who are now the home team, listed at +105 heading into Game 3. By my estimation, that’s close to a fair price, so unless the odds shift significantly toward the Maple Leafs, like they did prior to the first two games, I won’t be picking a side pregame.
Dallas Stars tie series 1-1
This game seemed like it would be played even in the first period until the Stars started to impose their will on the Kraken. Expected goals were 5.57 – 1.68 in favor of the Stars at the end of the game and they had a 58 percent share of the shot attempts in all situations. It was a dominant performance by Dallas, and a clear response after failing to win Game 1.
So, now the series is tied 1-1, and goaltender Jake Oettinger hasn’t even stolen a game yet. Not to mention, despite seeing both Seattle’s floor and ceiling in the series, Grubauer hasn’t had a bad game. It would seem likely that at some point, both of those things will happen.
Updated Series Probabilities
Dallas Stars Win Series: 65% (-186)
- 5 Games: 19%
- 6 Games: 24%
- 7 Games: 16%
Seattle Kraken Win Series: 35% (+186)
- 5 Games: 11%
- 6 Games: 18%
- 7 Games: 20%
Game 2 might have been the Stars ceiling, though, and there’s still no word on whether Seattle forward Jared McCann will return to the lineup. McCann did not travel with the team to Dallas.
- New Jersey Devils (-105) at Carolina Hurricanes (-115)
New Jersey looks to even the series after losing Game 1 and given how hard the Devils fought to make it to the second round, I expect a much better effort from them. That said, I think the games in this series are coin flips and I’m mostly just looking for fun in-game betting opportunities.
Note: Timo Meier was on the ice for Devils’ practice on Friday morning. Meier missed Game 1 after he was on the receiving end of a crushing hit from Rangers’ defenseman Jacob Trouba in Game 7 of the first round.
Once again, don’t forget to check out today’s episode of the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast with oddsmaker Jeff Davis from Circa Sports!