Stanley Cup Playoffs: Odds, series probabilities, and predictions for Seattle Kraken vs Dallas Stars

May 1, 2023 11:06 AM

Seattle guaranteed that a new Stanley Cup champion will be crowned in 2023 when they eliminated the Avalanche from the playoffs on Sunday. The Kraken will now face off against the Dallas Stars, who advanced to the second round after eliminating the Minnesota Wild in six games.

Series Winner Odds

  • Dallas Stars -190
  • Seattle Kraken +165


Series Spread Odds


  • -2.5 Games (+220)
  • +2.5 Games (-1000)
  • +1.5 Games (-360)
  • -1.5 Games (EVEN)



  • -2.5 Games (+600)
  • +2.5 Games (-280)
  • +1.5 Games (-130)
  • -1.5 Games (+280)


Series Correct Score


  • 4-0 (+750)
  • 4-1 (+380)
  • 4-2 (+400)
  • 4-3 (+400)



  • 4-0 (+2000)
  • 4-1 (+1000)
  • 4-2 (+600)
  • 4-3 (+650)


Series Total Games

  • Four Games (+550)
  • Five Games (+250)
  • Six Games (+210)
  • Seven Games (+210)


To get a sense of each team's strengths and weaknesses, let's take a closer look at their respective statistics and compare them head-to-head. Here's a tale of the tape for the upcoming series:


Seattle has been relying on all four lines to chip in on offense this season and that continued into the first round of the playoffs. The Stars have more elite players, though, and their edge in special teams and goaltending should translate a series victory.

What gives Dallas the edge?

As mentioned, depth has been the key for Seattle. The Kraken don’t have any players that are household names, but somehow, they managed to finish as one of the best offensive teams in the regular season. The Stars also have four strong forward lines, though, and much more high-end talent. Outside of Jared McCann, who is currently injured, the Kraken don’t have any players that are as dangerous as Roope Hintz or Jason Robertson, and the Stars’ supporting cast is full of veterans, who at one time or another, were considered the best of the best in the NHL.

Seattle doesn’t have a goaltender like Jake Oettinger, either, who has shown a knack for turning it on in the playoffs. The 24-year-old had a solid season, but it’s his .945 save percentage in 15 career playoff games that has people talking. Oettinger has been unbeatable for long stretches in the playoffs, and while the Kraken might provide more of a challenge for him than the Wild did, I don’t believe that Seattle has better goaltending than Minnesota. Dallas is as good as, if not better than, the Kraken on offense and defense, plus they have an elite goaltender, which is better than a hot goaltender, in my opinion.

Can Philipp Grubauer and the penalty kill stay hot?

Philipp Grubauer was great in round one, especially on the penalty kill. Colorado’s power play ranked sixth in the regular season, but Seattle was able to hold them to just two goals with the man advantage. Seattle’s penalty kill wasn’t all that good in the regular season, though, and Grubauer’s .945 save percentage (shorthanded) in round one is a big change from the .853 save percentage he posted during the regular season. Dallas ranked fifth on the power play in the regular season, and they converted on 37.5 percent of their opportunities in the first round. Seattle is going to have a hard time sustaining those types of numbers on the penalty kill against another top power play.

Will Jared McCann or Joe Pavelski play in the series?

Forward Jared McCann didn’t have a goal in the series prior to suffering an injury in Game 4, but he did score 40 in the regular season and the Kraken could really use him in this series given that they already have fewer star players than Dallas. McCann was not available for Game 7 versus Colorado and his status is unknown. Meanwhile, veteran forward Joe Pavelski, who was concussed in Game 1 versus the Wild, was close to returning for Game 6 of that series so it seems likely that he will be back early in the second round which is another big advantage for the Stars.

Who will win the series?

A best-of-7 series can result in a range of outcomes, from a clean sweep by one team to a full seven-game series that could go either way, so it’s important to view it that way. Here are my estimated series probabilities:

Dallas Stars

STARSSERIES_(1)Seattle KrakenKrakenSeries

Series Prediction

According to my NHL model, the Stars will win the series almost 67 percent of the time, which means their series odds should be around -200 and, therefore, -190 offers some value. The edge is too tiny, though, so my advice is to shop around if you want to bet on Dallas, who I predict will win in six games.

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