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Soccer bettors get All-American doubleheader

July 6, 2019 09:15 PM

In what’s shaping up as a dream finale for the July Fourth weekend, the Stars and Stripes will try will try to win the 2019 Women's World Cup against the Netherlands on Sunday (FOX, 11 a.m. ET)

The United States national team likely will close near a one-goal favorite over the Dutch. That’s a larger goal spread than in the last two rounds vs. France and England, just a shade below market expectations in prior games against Spain and Sweden. 

Though the talented and technically sound Orange Lionesses aren’t power-rated as highly as France or England, they’re definitely capable of taking this game to the wire.  

Anticipating weekend market activity will be tricky. Sportsbooks in the U.S. will be flooded with patriotic bets. How big of an adjustment will they make to global lines to limit exposure?

It’s expected that global “three-way” lines will close in the vicinity of USA -240 (risk $240 to win $100 that the U.S. will win the game in regulation), a draw plus 320 (risk $100 to win $320 that regulation ends in a tie, forcing extra time), and the Netherlands plus 600 (risk $100 to win $600 that the Dutch win in regulation).

 

Equivalent win percentages in regulation at those prices are the U.S. 71%, a draw 24%, and the Netherlands 9%. Sportsbooks build universes larger than 100% to create a house edge.

 

For totals bettors, the Over/Under in regulation will likely settle at 2.5 goals. The Under would be a slight favorite at that price. Sportsbooks offering a solid two would make the Over a steep favorite.

 

The U.S. is a prohibitive favorite to ultimately lift the cup (either in regulation, or in extra time/penalty kicks if needed). Odds immediately after the matchup locked in showed the U.S. at -500 (83% to claim the championship), the Netherlands plus 350 (22%). Will casual bettors be willing to risk $50 (or possibly more) to win $10?

 

Later Sunday, the U.S. men’s team will battle Mexico in the championship match of the Gold Cup (FS1, 9 p.m. ET).

 

Global markets show Mexico about 0.3 goals better on a goal supremacy scale. El Tri is laying slight juice at -0.25 goals on the Asian Handicap (half your bet goes in at pick-em, the other half at minus half a goal). But the U.S. lays slight juice at stores offering the dog at plus 0.5 goals.

 

Global “three-way” lines for the result at the end of regulation should close in the vicinity of USA plus 240 (29%), a draw plus 210 (32%), and Mexico plus 110 (48%). Some U.S. shops may offer a lower return on the hosts if betting is overly one-sided. Available Over/Unders should match the women’s game, with higher money lines on Over 2 than Under 2.5.

On the money line to claim the Gold Cup, Mexico is expected to close around -170 to -180, with the US likely to close around plus 140 to plus 160. Money has all day Sunday to move the market.

 

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