Sizing up Week 18 in the EPL

By Nicholas Hennion  (VSiN.com) 

It’s Matchweek 18 in the Premier League, and Wolves are unbelievably sitting at 0.5 goal on the goal line at the South Point sportsbook as they travel to Norwich on Saturday.

Yes, the eighth-place Wolverhampton Wanderers, five points out of a Champions League spot, are underdogs against 19th-place Norwich City. This line is only at the South Point, so bet it if you can access the book before the match at 7 a.m. PT. 

Three more plays for me this week in the Premier League — two goal lines and a total — before play kicks off Saturday. Here we go!

— Aston Villa vs. Southampton: Under 3 Goals

It’s a fixture between EPL cellar-dwellers as Aston Villa sits in 17th place, safe from the relegation zone only on goal differential. They’ll be hosting 18th-place Southampton. While this may not be a match you want to watch for fun, there are some clear trends to bet this total. 

In games involving the bottom four teams last season with a total of three goals, the Under has hit six times and has pushed twice. Only twice did games go Over three goals. Therefore, bettors are cashing or pushing on a three-goal total 72% of the time. 

Add the four games among bottom-four teams this season and you’ll see your percentage of cashing or pushing rise slightly to 73% of the time. 

Additionally, Villa has had the total go Over three goals at home only twice this season, with three Unders and three pushes. 

Finally, according to footystats.org, when considering every EPL match this season, the total has finished at 3 goals or Under 69% of the time. 

I have no idea who’s going to win this game, but play the total Under three goals. As of this writing, you have to lay some juice (-120) to get the Under at the South Point, but shop for the best line and see if you can’t find a few cents here or there. 

— Tottenham Goal-Line PK vs. Chelsea

Aside from a 1-0 loss to Newcastle on a lucky counterattack goal when Spurs possessed the ball 80%  of the match, Jose Mourinho’s men are unbeaten at the new White Hart Lane this season. 

It’s now a revenge spot for the special one, who was sacked not once but twice by the Blues, who have lost their last two away from Stamford Bridge. 

While Chelsea holds a slim three-point lead over Spurs for the final Champions League spot, history favors Harry Kane and company. Across the last nine meetings hosted by Tottenham, the hosts have won or drawn 78% of the time (three wins, four draws). 

Combine that with the fact that Spurs have recorded the third-most points at home this season among all Premier League teams and I see no option other than to lay money with Spurs on a PK goal-line — win cashes, draw pushes. 

At the South Point sportsbook, you can get Spurs at -135 at that spread. 

—Leicester City 1.5 Goal-Line at Manchester City

Pep Guardiola’s defense has struggled mightily against counterattacking teams, and that’s what Leicester does best. 

Like Villa-Southampton, some numbers back up taking Leicester to win, draw or lose by a single goal in Saturday’s prime-time matchup. 

In games involving the top four teams last season and so far this season, 11 of 17 fixtures, or 65%, have been decided by a single goal. Additionally, three of the last four meetings between second-place Leicester City and third-place Manchester City were decided by a single goal. 

If you look at games among the top four sides only this season, four of five have finished within that margin — three 2-1 contests and one 1-1 draw. 

Finally, Leicester has shown it will not roll over away from the King Power, as evidenced by the team’s third-best road point total in the EPL.

At the South Point, getting 1.5 goals with the visitors will force you to lay -135, but I’m not convinced Man City can fend off Leicester to the tune of a 2-0 or 3-1 victory. 

If you’re not convinced on the side, I believe the total is also worth a look. Checking the same data set — matches involving top-four teams the last two seasons — only five of 17 times has a game finished Over three goals. 

That’s a 29% conversion rate. 

The total at the South Point currently sits at the key number of 3, and the Under is juiced slightly to -115. Either way, this match feels like a 1-1 or 2-1 contest, so I believe the worst you can do is a push.

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