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Simulations reveal MLB betting value

By Steve Makinen  (VSiN.com) 

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(To view the charts associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly)

A week after the All-Star Game, a few of MLB’s divisional races remain wide open, while others show prohibitive favorites. This is usually a good time to project the rest of the season to see how teams might fare based upon their remaining schedules, injury situations, starting rotations and other factors. We know a lot about all 30 teams after nearly 100 games, so simulating the rest of the season should uncover some great betting opportunities we can invest in while the price is right.

There are some important points I need to share before getting to the projections for the rest of the season. Consider these key fundamentals and roster points in full before heading to the counter to place your wagers.

-        My power ratings obviously don’t account for any potential trade-deadline deals that may occur before the end of the month. There are some game-changing players’ names being tossed about, including stud pitchers like Max Scherzer. If you have a reasonable gauge on which teams might be selling and which might be buying in the next week or so, you should feel comfortable in bumping up or down my projections.

-        The current power ratings also don’t account for the typical September “over-pricing” that always comes up, as oddsmakers tend to boost the lines on the better teams in conjunction with the rising stakes of games. They also don’t reflect any late-season resting of starters after playoff spots have been clinched. In both of those cases, lines can swing by as much as 50 cents on a game, which can account for about 0.1 wins/losses on my projections. Multiply this by five and you can see how the projected standings could change. 

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