Simulating the NFL schedule: Bills come out on top

June 20, 2022 02:23 PM
USATSI_17444435

With the 2022 NFL schedule released two weeks ago, it’s a popular time for betting on season win totals. It’s also as good a time as ever to finalize my power ratings and run them against the schedule. By analyzing every game, we can potentially find things oddsmakers might have missed in setting the season win totals.

It’s the second year of the 17-game schedule, a change that caused some issues for bettors last year as season win totals were 0.5 wins higher on average. I’m not a big fan of the 17th game for several reasons, not the least of which is what it did to the many statistical records that were broken last season. 

In this exercise, I’ve simulated the 2022 schedules for each team using their opponents and my latest power ratings, including team-specific home and road ratings. I should note that my current NFL ratings for home-field advantage settled at about 1.6 points at the end of last season and I have kept them there for now. Subscribers can find my projected standings in this week's edition of Point Spread Weekly at VSiN.com, and below you'll see team-by-team schedules with projected point spreads for each game. You can use these numbers to bet season win totals or the “games of the year” that have recently been released by books.

I recently updated my power ratings. Other than a big jump for the Broncos and a big dip for the Seahawks due to the Russell Wilson trade, most of the other big adjustments were for teams at opposite ends of the spectrum in what I consider normalcy adjustments. In my own oddsmaking experience, I learned there’s no greater reset button in the NFL than the offseason.

A brief explanation of how I develop my power ratings: I generally tend to follow the betting markets first and foremost until teams accumulate statistics. I make adjustments based on certain factors. For example, the last four Super Bowl champions generally shared strengths in five personnel groupings, and I value them in this order:

1. Quarterback play

2. Ability to pressure the quarterback

3. Secondary play (shutting down receivers and creating turnovers)

4. Protecting the quarterback

5. Skill/volume of offensive playmakers

When analyzing the results of the schedule simulation, bettors can make adjustments based on how the schedule lays out. How difficult are the first few games? Are the toughest games at home or on the road? Are there any long stretches on the road? When is the bye? Also, are there any key player situations we should account for, such as suspensions to Browns QB Deshaun Watson or Saints RB Alvin Kamara? Food for thought.

Here are the six games I have rated as neutral-field games (official home team listed second):

— Minnesota vs. New Orleans (London)

— N.Y. Giants vs. Green Bay (London)

— Denver vs. Jacksonville (London)

— Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (Munich)

— San Francisco vs. Arizona (Mexico City)

— LA Rams vs. LA Chargers (Los Angeles)

What stood out in the analysis

Here are a few highlights of the study, and some of my own observations based on DraftKings’ season win totals as of May 20. If you’re betting season win totals, make sure to shop around for the best numbers.

Top 3 teams projected to go Over in Steve’s simulation

1. Minnesota — DraftKings: 9.0, Steve's projection: 9.9, Difference: + 0.9

T2. Seattle — DraftKings: 5.5, Steve's projection: 6.2, Difference: + 0.7

T2. N.Y. Giants — DraftKings: 7, Steve's projection: 7.7, Difference: + 0.7

Top 4 teams projected to go Under in Steve’s simulation

1. San Francisco — DraftKings: 10, Steve's projection: 8.7, Difference: -1.3

T2. Chicago — DraftKings: 6.5, Steve's projection: 5.5, Difference: -1

T2. Cincinnati — DraftKings: 10, Steve's projection: 9, Difference: -1

4. Pittsburgh — DraftKings: 7.5, Steve's projection: 6.6, Difference: -0.9

— According to my figures, the Chiefs play the NFL’s toughest schedule as it stands now, with home/road factors being considered, just ahead of the Chargers and Jets. Last year at this time, they had the easiest schedule. Not only do they have to face the tough AFC West and NFC West in non-divisional games, they also get the Bills, Bengals and Titans as fellow first-place teams, plus they travel to Tampa Bay as the added 17th game. Their first eight games make up one of the most difficult first-half schedules I’ve ever seen, at least on paper.

— The easiest schedule belongs to the Eagles, a team drawing rave reviews after a big draft haul and a favorite prop option of our own Matt Youmans. The NFC East matches up with a weak AFC South this year, a big reason for the Eagles’ soft schedule. At this point, my power ratings have the Eagles favored by 3 points or more in eight of their 17 games. If the Eagles pick up where they left off — they made the playoffs in January —  another season of growth might be on the horizon. The Giants and Colts have the second- and third-easiest schedules.

— The Bills are projected to win the most games of any team in the NFL (12.1), followed by the Bucs (11.6), Packers (11.5) and Rams (11). The other projected division winners include the Browns (9.8), Colts (9.7), Chiefs (10.7), Cowboys (10.4) and 49ers (10.2). 

— Last year, three teams were projected to win fewer than six games (Texans, 5.2; Lions, 5.5; Bengals, 5.9). We all know how things turned out for the Bengals, as they reached the Super Bowl. Does that mean there’s hope for teams such as the Falcons (5.6 projected wins), Bears (5.5), Jets (5.5) or Texans (4.8)? The Texans and Bears have new coaches, for what that’s worth.

— The Bills are projected as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, with the No. 2 Chiefs taking on the No. 7 Broncos in the recently expanded playoff format. In other projections for wild-card weekend, the No. 3 Browns would host the No. 6 Ravens and the No. 4 Colts would host the No. 5 Chargers. In the NFC, the Buccaneers are projected as the top seed, with wild-card matchups of Packers-Cardinals, Rams-Eagles and Cowboys-Vikings.

— The largest point spread is expected in a divisional game featuring the Jets at Bills in December, with the Bills projected as 15.3-point favorites. Five other games show 14-point lines, with two of them featuring the Packers as home chalk. In all, 36 games are projected to have double-digit point spreads, a 14-game increase from last year at this point. 

— Of the 266 matchups played at host stadiums, 103 of them are showing road favorites. The Chargers, Bucs and Chiefs are projected as road favorites eight times each, while the Falcons, Bears and Texans are each projected as home dogs eight times.

— It should be noted that ahead of the 2020 season, using this same exercise, I correctly picked six of the seven playoff teams in the AFC and four of seven in the NFC. Last year, I was correct on four of seven in the AFC five of seven in the NFC.  If I’m correct on about 10 of 14 playoff teams this year, that would leave room for four teams I’m not projecting as of now. As a betting man, my best guess for those teams would be the Titans, Patriots, Giants and 49ers.

Point spreads based on power ratings

Here are the schedules of all 32 teams, with power-rating lines according to my numbers:

Arizona Cardinals

Sept. 11: Kansas City, + 2.7

Sept. 18: @Las Vegas, + 1

Sept. 25: LA Rams, + 4

Oct. 2: @Carolina, -5.1

Oct. 9: Philadelphia, -3.7

Oct. 16: @Seattle, -5.6

Oct. 20: New Orleans, -4.7

Oct. 30: @Minnesota, + 1.8

Nov. 6: Seattle, -7.1

Nov. 13: @LA Rams, + 5.5

Nov. 21: Vs. San Francisco, -1.3

Nov. 27: LA Chargers, + 1.2

Dec. 12: New England, -4.1

Dec. 18: @Denver, + 1.8

Dec. 25: Tampa Bay, + 3.1

Jan. 1: @Atlanta, -6.6

Jan. 8: @San Francisco, -0.5

Atlanta Falcons

Sept. 11: New Orleans, + 3.8

Sept. 18: @LA Rams, + 14.7

Sept. 25: @Seattle, + 3.6

Oct. 2: Cleveland, + 6.4

Oct. 9: @Tampa Bay, + 14

Oct. 16: San Francisco, + 4.9

Oct. 23: @Cincinnati, + 9.7

Oct. 30: Carolina, + 0.2

Nov. 6: LA Chargers, + 8.9

Nov. 10: @Carolina, + 2.5

Nov. 20: Chicago, -2.8

Nov. 27: @Washington, + 5.4

Dec. 4: Pittsburgh, + 0.5

Dec. 18: @New Orleans, + 6

Dec. 24: @Baltimore, + 9.8

Jan. 1: Arizona, + 6.6

Jan. 8: Tampa Bay, + 11.6

Baltimore Ravens

Sept. 11: @N.Y. Jets, -5.1

Sept. 18: Miami, -3.6

Sept. 25: @New England, + 0.8

Oct. 2: Buffalo, + 4

Oct. 9: Cincinnati, -1.2

Oct. 16: @N.Y. Giants, -2.7

Oct. 23: Cleveland, -0.8

Oct. 27: @Tampa Bay, + 7.5

Nov. 7: @New Orleans, -0.5

Nov. 20: Carolina, -8.6

Nov. 27: @Jacksonville, -4.9

Dec. 4: Denver, -1.4

Dec. 11: @Pittsburgh, -3

Dec. 18: @Cleveland, + 2.3

Dec. 24: Atlanta, -9.8

Jan. 1: Pittsburgh, -6.7

Jan. 8: @Cincinnati, + 1.6

Buffalo Bills

Sept. 8: @LA Rams, + 0.9

Sept. 19: Tennessee, -8.8

Sept. 25: @Miami, -6.3

Oct. 2: @Baltimore, -4

Oct. 9: Pittsburgh, -13.7

Oct. 16: @Kansas City, + 0.7

Oct. 30: Green Bay, -4.1

Nov. 6: @N.Y. Jets, -12.4

Nov. 13: Minnesota, -7.9

Nov. 20: Cleveland, -7.8

Nov. 24: @Detroit, -11.6

Dec. 1: @New England, -6.5

Dec. 11: N.Y. Jets, -15.3

Dec. 18: Miami, -9

Dec. 24: @Chicago, -12.8

Jan. 2: @Cincinnati, -4.1

Jan. 8: New England, -9.8

Carolina Panthers

Sept. 11: Cleveland, + 4.9

Sept. 18: @N.Y. Giants, + 3.4

Sept. 25: New Orleans, + 2.3

Oct. 2: Arizona, + 5.1

Oct. 9: San Francisco, + 3.4

Oct. 16: @LA Rams, + 13.5

Oct. 23: Tampa Bay, + 10.1

Oct. 30: @Atlanta, -0.2

Nov. 6: @Cincinnati, + 8.5

Nov. 10: Atlanta, -2.5

Nov. 20: @Baltimore, + 8.6

Nov. 27: Denver, + 5.1

Dec. 11: @Seattle, + 2.4

Dec. 18: Pittsburgh, -1

Dec. 24: Detroit, -2.5

Jan. 1: @Tampa Bay, + 12.8

Jan. 8: @New Orleans, + 4.8

Chicago Bears

Sept. 11: San Francisco, + 5.7

Sept. 18: @Green Bay, + 14.7

Sept. 25: Houston, -2.9

Oct. 2: @N.Y. Giants, + 5.6

Oct. 9: @Minnesota, + 10.4

Oct. 13: Washington, + 2.9

Oct. 24: @New England, + 9.1

Oct. 30: @Dallas, + 12.8

Nov. 6: Miami, + 5.2

Nov. 13: Detroit, + 0.6

Nov. 20: @Atlanta, + 2.8

Nov. 27: @N.Y. Jets, + 3.2

Dec. 4: Green Bay, + 11.7

Dec. 18: Philadelphia, + 4.8

Dec. 24: Buffalo, + 12.8

Jan. 1: @Detroit, + 2.4

Jan. 8: Minnesota, + 7.9

Cincinnati Bengals

Sept. 11: Pittsburgh, -6.6

Sept. 18: @Dallas, + 4

Sept. 25: @N.Y. Jets, -5.6

Sept. 29: Miami, -3.5

Oct. 9: @Baltimore, + 1.2

Oct. 16: @New Orleans, -1

Oct. 23: Atlanta, -9.7

Oct. 31: @Cleveland, + 1.8

Nov. 6: Carolina, -8.5

Nov. 20: @Pittsburgh, -3.5

Nov. 27: @Tennessee, + 1.6

Dec. 4: Kansas City, + 2.5

Dec. 11: Cleveland, -0.7

Dec. 18: @Tampa Bay, + 7

Dec. 24: @New England, + 0.3

Jan. 2: Buffalo, + 4.1

Jan. 8: Baltimore, -1.6

Cleveland Browns

Sept. 11: @Carolina, -4.9

Sept. 18: N.Y. Jets, -10.5

Sept. 22: Pittsburgh, -7.3

Oct. 2: @Atlanta, -6.4

Oct. 9: LA Chargers, + 0.3

Oct. 16: New England, -5

Oct. 23: @Baltimore, + 0.8

Oct. 31: Cincinnati, -1.8

Nov. 13: @Miami, + 0.1

Nov. 20: @Buffalo, + 7.8

Nov. 27: Tampa Bay, + 2.2

Dec. 4: @Houston, -7.7

Dec. 11: @Cincinnati, + 0.7

Dec. 18: Baltimore, -2.3

Dec. 24: New Orleans, -5.6

Jan. 1: @Washington, -2.8

Jan. 8: @Pittsburgh, -3.9

Dallas Cowboys

Sept. 11: Tampa Bay, + 0.8

Sept. 18: Cincinnati, -4

Sept. 26: @N.Y. Giants, -5.4

Oct. 2: Washington, -7.1

Oct. 9: @LA Rams, + 5.5

Oct. 16: @Philadelphia, -2

Oct. 23: Detroit, -11

Oct. 30: Chicago, -12.8

Nov. 13: @Green Bay, + 5.3

Nov. 20: @Minnesota, + 1

Nov. 24: N.Y. Giants, -7.8

Dec. 4: Indianapolis, -4.2

Dec. 11: Houston, -13.7

Dec. 18: @Jacksonville, -6.8

Dec. 24: Philadelphia, -5.2

Dec. 29: @Tennessee, + 0.2

Jan. 8: @Washington, -4.6

Denver Broncos

Sept. 12: @Seattle, -4.8

Sept. 18: Houston, -12.1

Sept. 25: San Francisco, -3.5

Oct. 2: @Las Vegas, + 0.2

Oct. 6: Indianapolis, -2.6

Oct. 17: @LA Chargers, + 2.8

Oct. 23: N.Y. Jets, -10.3

Oct. 30: Vs. Jacksonville, -7.5

Nov. 13: @Tennessee, + 1

Nov. 20: Las Vegas, -2.3

Nov. 27: @Carolina, -5.1

Dec. 4: @Baltimore, + 1.4

Dec. 11: Kansas City, + 2.8

Dec. 18: Arizona, -1.8

Dec. 25: @LA Rams, + 6.3

Jan. 1: @Kansas City, + 5.3

Jan. 8: LA Chargers, + 1.3

Detroit Lions

Sept. 11: Philadelphia, + 3.6

Sept. 18: Washington, + 1.7

Sept. 25: @Minnesota, + 8.6

Oct. 2: Seattle, -0.6

Oct. 9: @New England, + 7.3

Oct. 23: @Dallas, + 11

Oct. 30: Miami, + 4

Nov. 6: Green Bay, + 10.5

Nov. 13: @Chicago, -0.6

Nov. 20: @N.Y. Giants, + 3.8

Nov. 24: Buffalo, + 11.6

Dec. 4: Jacksonville, -1.7

Dec. 11: Minnesota, + 6.7

Dec. 18: @N.Y. Jets, + 1.4

Dec. 24: @Carolina, + 2.5

Jan. 1: Chicago, -2.4

Jan. 8: @Green Bay, + 12.9

Green Bay Packers

Sept. 11: @Minnesota, -2.5

Sept. 18: Chicago, -14.7

Sept. 25: @Tampa Bay, + 2.9

Oct. 2: New England, -9.1

Oct. 9: Vs. N.Y. Giants, -9.1

Oct. 16: N.Y. Jets, -14.6

Oct. 23: @Washington, -6.5

Oct. 30: @Buffalo, + 4.1

Nov. 6: @Detroit, -10.5

Nov. 13: Dallas, -5.3

Nov. 17: Tennessee, -7.3

Nov. 27: @Philadelphia, -3.9

Dec. 4: @Chicago, -11.7

Dec. 19: LA Rams, -1.8

Dec. 25: @Miami, -3.6

Jan. 1: Minnesota, -5.6

Jan. 8: Detroit, -12.9

Houston Texans

Sept. 11: Indianapolis, + 7.9

Sept. 18: @Denver, + 12.1

Sept. 25: @Chicago, + 2.9

Oct. 2: LA Chargers, + 10.2

Oct. 9: @Jacksonville, + 3.5

Oct. 23: @Las Vegas, + 11.3

Oct. 30: Tennessee, + 7.5

Nov. 3: Philadelphia, + 5.3

Nov. 13: @N.Y. Giants, + 6.5

Nov. 20: Washington, + 3.4

Nov. 27: @Miami, + 10.2

Dec. 4: Cleveland, + 7.7

Dec. 11: @Dallas, + 13.7

Dec. 18: Kansas City, + 11.7

Dec. 24: @Tennessee, + 10.5

Jan. 1: Jacksonville, + 0.8

Jan. 8: @Indianapolis, + 11.2

Indianapolis Colts

Sept. 11: @Houston, -7.9

Sept. 18: @Jacksonville, -6

Sept. 25: Kansas City, + 2.1

Oct. 2: Tennessee, -2.1

Oct. 6: @Denver, + 2.6

Oct. 16: Jacksonville, -8.8

Oct. 23: @Tennessee, + 1

Oct. 30: Washington, -6.2

Nov. 6: @New England, + 0.5

Nov. 13: @Las Vegas, + 1.8

Nov. 20: Philadelphia, -4.3

Nov. 28: Pittsburgh, -7.8

Dec. 4: @Dallas, + 4.2

Dec. 18: @Minnesota, + 2.6

Dec. 26: LA Chargers, + 0.6

Jan. 1: @N.Y. Giants, -3

Jan. 8: Houston, -11.2

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sept. 11: @Washington, + 4.9

Sept. 18: Indianapolis, + 6

Sept. 25: @LA Chargers, + 11.5

Oct. 2: @Philadelphia, + 7.5

Oct. 9: Houston, -3.5

Oct. 16: @Indianapolis, + 8.8

Oct. 23: N.Y. Giants, + 0.8

Oct. 30: Vs. Denver, + 7.5

Nov. 6: Las Vegas, + 4.7

Nov. 13: @Kansas City, + 14

Nov. 27: Baltimore, + 4.9

Dec. 4: @Detroit, + 1.7

Dec. 11: @Tennessee, + 8.1

Dec. 18: Dallas, + 6.8

Dec. 22: @N.Y. Jets, + 1.7

Jan. 1: @Houston, -0.8

Jan. 8: Tennessee, + 5.6

Kansas City Chiefs

Sept. 11: @Arizona, -2.7

Sept. 15: LA Chargers, -3

Sept. 25: @Indianapolis, -2.1

Oct. 2: @Tampa Bay, + 2.6

Oct. 10: Las Vegas, -6.6

Oct. 16: Buffalo, -0.7

Oct. 23: @San Francisco, -3.5

Nov. 6: Tennessee, -7.3

Nov. 13: Jacksonville, -14

Nov. 20: @LA Chargers, -1

Nov. 27: LA Rams, -1.8

Dec. 4: @Cincinnati, -2.5

Dec. 11: @Denver, -2.8

Dec. 18: @Houston, -11.7

Dec. 24: Seattle, -12.9

Jan. 1: Denver, -5.3

Jan. 8: @Las Vegas, -3.6

Los Angeles Chargers

Sept. 11: Las Vegas, -4.1

Sept. 15: @Kansas City, + 3

Sept. 25: Jacksonville, -11.5

Oct. 2: @Houston, -10.2

Oct. 9: @Cleveland, -0.3

Oct. 17: Denver, -2.8

Oct. 23: Seattle, -10.4

Nov. 6: @Atlanta, -8.9

Nov. 13: @San Francisco, -2

Nov. 20: Kansas City, + 1

Nov. 27: @Arizona, -1.2

Dec. 4: @Las Vegas, -2.1

Dec. 11: Miami, -5.8

Dec. 18: Tennessee, -4.8

Dec. 26: @Indianapolis, -0.6

Jan. 1: Vs. LA Rams, + 1.6

Jan. 8: @Denver, -1.3

Los Angeles Rams

Sept. 8: Buffalo, -0.9

Sept. 18: Atlanta, -14.7

Sept. 25: @Arizona, -4

Oct. 3: @San Francisco, -4.8

Oct. 9: Dallas, -5.5

Oct. 16: Carolina, -13.5

Oct. 30: San Francisco, -7.2

Nov. 6: @Tampa Bay, + 2.1

Nov. 13: Arizona, -5.5

Nov. 20: @New Orleans, -5.9

Nov. 27: @Kansas City, + 1.8

Dec. 4: Seattle, -12.3

Dec. 8: Las Vegas, -7.6

Dec. 19: @Green Bay, + 1.8

Dec. 25: Denver, -6.3

Jan. 1: Vs. LA Chargers, -1.6

Jan. 8: @Seattle, -9.9

Las Vegas Raiders

Sept. 11: @LA Chargers, + 4.1

Sept. 18: Arizona, -1

Sept. 25: @Tennessee, + 2.3

Oct. 2: Denver, -0.2

Oct. 10: @Kansas City, + 6.6

Oct. 23: Houston, -11.3

Oct. 30: @New Orleans, -0.3

Nov. 6: @Jacksonville, -4.7

Nov. 13: Indianapolis, -1.8

Nov. 20: @Denver, + 2.3

Nov. 27: @Seattle, -3.5

Dec. 4: LA Chargers, + 2.1

Dec. 8: @LA Rams, + 7.6

Dec. 18: New England, -4

Dec. 24: @Pittsburgh, -2

Jan. 1: San Francisco, -2.7

Jan. 8: Kansas City, + 3.6

Miami Dolphins

Sept. 11: New England, -2.1

Sept. 18: @Baltimore, + 3.6

Sept. 25: Buffalo, + 6.3

Sept. 29: @Cincinnati, + 3.5

Oct. 9: @N.Y. Jets, -4.8

Oct. 16: Minnesota, -0.2

Oct. 23: Pittsburgh, -6

Oct. 30: @Detroit, -4

Nov. 6: @Chicago, -5.2

Nov. 13: Cleveland, -0.1

Nov. 27: Houston, -10.2

Dec. 4: @San Francisco, + 2.5

Dec. 11: @LA Chargers, + 5.8

Dec. 18: @Buffalo, + 9

Dec. 25: Green Bay, + 3.6

Jan. 1: @New England, + 1.1

Jan. 8: N.Y. Jets, -7.6

Minnesota Vikings

Sept. 11: Green Bay, + 2.5

Sept. 19: @Philadelphia, -0.1

Sept. 25: Detroit, -8.6

Oct. 2: Vs. New Orleans, -2.9

Oct. 9: Chicago, -10.4

Oct. 16: @Miami, + 0.2

Oct. 30: Arizona, -1.8

Nov. 6: @Washington, -2.7

Nov. 13: @Buffalo, + 7.9

Nov. 20: Dallas, -1

Nov. 24: New England, -4.8

Dec. 4: N.Y. Jets, -10.3

Dec. 11: @Detroit, -6.7

Dec. 18: Indianapolis, -2.6

Dec. 24: N.Y. Giants, -7

Jan. 1: @Green Bay, + 5.6

Jan. 8: @Chicago, -7.9

New England Patriots

Sept. 11: @Miami, + 2.1

Sept. 18: @Pittsburgh, -0.3

Sept. 25: Baltimore, -0.8

Oct. 2: @Green Bay, + 9.1

Oct. 9: Detroit, -7.3

Oct. 16: @Cleveland, + 5

Oct. 24: Chicago, -9.1

Oct. 30: @N.Y. Jets, -4

Nov. 6: Indianapolis, -0.5

Nov. 20: N.Y. Jets, -7.4

Nov. 24: @Minnesota, + 4.8

Dec. 1: Buffalo, + 6.5

Dec. 12: @Arizona, + 4.1

Dec. 18: @Las Vegas, + 4

Dec. 24: Cincinnati, -0.3

Jan. 1: Miami, -1.1

Jan. 8: @Buffalo, + 9.8

New Orleans Saints

Sept. 11: @Atlanta, -3.8

Sept. 18: Tampa Bay, + 6.6

Sept. 25: @Carolina, -2.3

Oct. 2: Vs. Minnesota, + 2.9

Oct. 9: Seattle, -5.2

Oct. 16: Cincinnati, + 1

Oct. 20: @Arizona, + 4.7

Oct. 30: Las Vegas, + 0.3

Nov. 7: Baltimore, + 0.5

Nov. 13: @Pittsburgh, + 0.3

Nov. 20: LA Rams, + 5.9

Nov. 27: @San Francisco, + 3.9

Dec. 5: @Tampa Bay, + 9.2

Dec. 18: Atlanta, -6

Dec. 24: @Cleveland, + 5.6

Jan. 1: @Philadelphia, + 3.2

Jan. 8: Carolina, -4.8

New York Giants

Sept. 11: @Tennessee, + 6.2

Sept. 18: Carolina, -3.4

Sept. 26: Dallas, + 5.4

Oct. 2: Chicago, -5.6

Oct. 9: Vs. Green Bay, + 9.1

Oct. 16: Baltimore, + 2.7

Oct. 23: @Jacksonville, -0.8

Oct. 30: @Seattle, + 0.4

Nov. 13: Houston, -6.5

Nov. 20: Detroit, -3.8

Nov. 24: @Dallas, + 7.8

Dec. 4: Washington, + 0.1

Dec. 11: Philadelphia, + 2

Dec. 18: @Washington, + 1.4

Dec. 24: @Minnesota, + 7

Jan. 1: Indianapolis, + 3

Jan. 8: @Philadelphia, + 4

New York Jets

Sept. 11: Baltimore, + 5.1

Sept. 18: @Cleveland, + 10.5

Sept. 25: Cincinnati, + 5.6

Oct. 2: @Pittsburgh, + 5.2

Oct. 9: Miami, + 4.8

Oct. 16: @Green Bay, + 14.6

Oct. 23: @Denver, + 10.3

Oct. 30: New England, + 4

Nov. 6: Buffalo, + 12.4

Nov. 20: @New England, + 7.4

Nov. 27: Chicago, -3.2

Dec. 4: @Minnesota, + 10.3

Dec. 11: @Buffalo, + 15.3

Dec. 18: Detroit, -1.4

Dec. 22: Jacksonville, -1.7

Jan. 1: @Seattle, + 3.7

Jan. 8: @Miami, + 7.6

Philadelphia Eagles

Sept. 11: @Detroit, -3.6

Sept. 19: Minnesota, + 0.1

Sept. 25: @Washington, -1.2

Oct. 2: Jacksonville, -7.5

Oct. 9: @Arizona, + 3.7

Oct. 16: Dallas, + 2

Oct. 30: Pittsburgh, -5.7

Nov. 3: @Houston, -5.3

Nov. 14: Washington, -3.3

Nov. 20: @Indianapolis, + 4.3

Nov. 27: Green Bay, + 3.9

Dec. 4: Tennessee, -0.8

Dec. 11: @N.Y. Giants, -2

Dec. 18: @Chicago, -4.8

Dec. 24: @Dallas, + 5.2

Jan. 1: New Orleans, -3.2

Jan. 8: N.Y. Giants, -4

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sept. 11: @Cincinnati, + 6.6

Sept. 18: New England, + 0.3

Sept. 22: @Cleveland, + 7.3

Oct. 2: N.Y. Jets, -5.2

Oct. 9: @Buffalo, + 13.7

Oct. 16: Tampa Bay, + 7.5

Oct. 23: @Miami, + 6

Oct. 30: @Philadelphia, + 5.7

Nov. 13: New Orleans, -0.3

Nov. 20: Cincinnati, + 3.5

Nov. 28: @Indianapolis, + 7.8

Dec. 4: @Atlanta, -0.5

Dec. 11: Baltimore, + 3

Dec. 18: @Carolina, + 1

Dec. 24: Las Vegas, + 2

Jan. 1: @Baltimore, + 6.7

Jan. 8: Cleveland, + 3.9

San Francisco 49ers

Sept. 11: @Chicago, -5.7

Sept. 18: Seattle, -6.3

Sept. 25: @Denver, + 3.5

Oct. 3: LA Rams, + 4.8

Oct. 9: @Carolina, -3.4

Oct. 16: @Atlanta, -4.9

Oct. 23: Kansas City, + 3.5

Oct. 30: @LA Rams, + 7.2

Nov. 13: LA Chargers, + 2

Nov. 21: Vs. Arizona, + 1.3

Nov. 27: New Orleans, -3.9

Dec. 4: Miami, -2.5

Dec. 11: Tampa Bay, + 3.9

Dec. 15: @Seattle, -3.9

Dec. 24: Washington, -4.8

Jan. 1: @Las Vegas, + 2.7

Jan. 8: Arizona, + 0.5

Seattle Seahawks

Sept. 12: Denver, + 4.8

Sept. 18: @San Francisco, + 6.3

Sept. 25: Atlanta, -3.6

Oct. 2: @Detroit, + 0.6

Oct. 9: @New Orleans, + 5.2

Oct. 16: Arizona, + 5.6

Oct. 23: @LA Chargers, + 10.4

Oct. 30: N.Y. Giants, -0.4

Nov. 6: @Arizona, + 7.1

Nov. 13: Vs. Tampa Bay, + 11.4

Nov. 27: Las Vegas, + 3.5

Dec. 4: @LA Rams, + 12.3

Dec. 11: Carolina, -2.4

Dec. 15: San Francisco, + 3.9

Dec. 24: @Kansas City, + 12.9

Jan. 1: N.Y. Jets, -3.7

Jan. 8: LA Rams, + 9.9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sept. 11: @Dallas, -0.8

Sept. 18: @New Orleans, -6.6

Sept. 25: Green Bay, -2.9

Oct. 2: Kansas City, -2.6

Oct. 9: Atlanta, -14

Oct. 16: @Pittsburgh, -7.5

Oct. 23: @Carolina, -10.1

Oct. 27: Baltimore, -7.5

Nov. 6: LA Rams, -2.1

Nov. 13: Vs. Seattle, -11.4

Nov. 27: @Cleveland, -2.2

Dec. 5: New Orleans, -9.2

Dec. 11: @San Francisco, -3.9

Dec. 18: Cincinnati, -7

Dec. 25: @Arizona, -3.1

Jan. 1: Carolina, -12.8

Jan. 8: @Atlanta, -11.6

Tennessee Titans

Sept. 11: N.Y. Giants, -6.2

Sept. 19: @Buffalo, + 8.8

Sept. 25: Las Vegas, -2.3

Oct. 2: @Indianapolis, + 2.1

Oct. 9: @Washington, -1.8

Oct. 23: Indianapolis, -1

Oct. 30: @Houston, -7.5

Nov. 6: @Kansas City, + 7.3

Nov. 13: Denver, -1

Nov. 17: @Green Bay, + 7.3

Nov. 27: Cincinnati, -1.6

Dec. 4: @Philadelphia, + 0.8

Dec. 11: Jacksonville, -8.1

Dec. 18: @LA Chargers, + 4.8

Dec. 24: Houston, -10.5

Dec. 29: Dallas, -0.2

Jan. 8: @Jacksonville, -5.6

Washington Commanders

Sept. 11: Jacksonville, -4.9

Sept. 18: @Detroit, -1.7

Sept. 25: Philadelphia, + 1.2

Oct. 2: @Dallas, + 7.1

Oct. 9: Tennessee, + 1.8

Oct. 13: @Chicago, -2.9

Oct. 23: Green Bay, + 6.5

Oct. 30: @Indianapolis, + 6.2

Nov. 6: Minnesota, + 2.7

Nov. 14: @Philadelphia, + 3.3

Nov. 20: @Houston, -3.4

Nov. 27: Atlanta, -5.4

Dec. 4: @N.Y. Giants, -0.1

Dec. 18: N.Y. Giants, -1.4

Dec. 24: @San Francisco, + 4.8

Jan. 1: Cleveland, + 2.8

Jan. 8: Dallas, + 4.6

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