Simple NHL Player Prop Betting Strategy for Saturday, January 7th

January 7, 2023 11:16 AM
Matt Boldy has been elevated to Kirill Kaprizov's line ahead of Saturday's game in Buffalo.

Simple NHL Player Prop Betting Strategy for Saturday, January 7th

With a little bit of know-how, anyone can improve their chances of making successful NHL player prop bets. In this article, we'll go over a simple strategy for handicapping NHL player props that can help you make informed decisions and potentially turn a profit. We'll cover how to gather and analyze data, as well as how to manage your bankroll. Whether you're a seasoned NHL bettor or a new bettor wanting to learn how to bet on nhl player props, this strategy is for you.

Best NHL Player Prop Bets:

  • Matthew Boldy Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120)
  • Matthew Boldy Over 0.5 Points (-135)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Opportunity Arises for Matthew Boldy with Injury to Mats Zuccarello

Matt Boldy has been elevated to play on the top line with Kirill Kaprizov, filling in for the injured Mats Zuccarello. While Boldy may be temporarily playing above his usual role, he is more than capable of stepping up to the challenge. In 37 games, Boldy has scored 12 goals and earned 29 points, ranking fourth on the team. However, in the 19 games where he received at least 18 minutes of ice time, Boldy contributed 16 points. On Saturday, Boldy is likely to see similar ice time as he takes Zuccarello's place on the power play in addition to his spot on the top line with Kaprizov.

Additional Ice Time Can Make a Significant Difference

Not only will Boldy's extra ice time increase his chances of scoring, but it will also give him more opportunities to generate shots. He has recorded at least three shots on goal in 14 of the 19 games where he played at least 18 minutes. Despite averaging three fewer minutes of ice time per game, Boldy has nearly produced the same number of shots per 60 minutes as Kaprizov.

Ideal Conditions for a High-Scoring Game

The Minnesota Wild have scored four or more goals in seven of their last nine games and rank 10th in the NHL for goals over the past month. On the other hand, the Buffalo Sabres, while currently the top offensive team in the NHL, allow a high number of shots against (seventh-worst per 60 minutes) and expected goals against (fourth-worst per 60 minutes). These factors could lead to a high-scoring game on Saturday.

Both the Sabres and Wild are among the top-10 teams in terms of drawing and taking penalties, giving each power play a good chance to excel. Players such as Buffalo's Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, who rank among the top power play point producers in the league, will attract a lot of attention from bettors. However, with Boldy's temporary role, his odds are more attractive.

How to use this strategy going forward

In the future, NHL bettors should look for talented players like Matthew Boldy who are being elevated from the bottom-six to the top-six, or more specifically, the top line. By using data from past games, bettors can assess how much a player like Boldy will benefit from increased ice time and consider their new linemates when making bets.

As mentioned, Boldy has the opportunity to play on the top line with Kaprizov and power play on Saturday, which will give him more chances to score and generate shots. The game conditions are also favorable, with the Minnesota Wild ranking 10th in goals scored over the past month and the Buffalo Sabres allowing a high number of shots and expected goals against. By considering these factors, bettors can make informed decisions and potentially turn a profit.

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