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SHOPPING AROUND THE NFL FUTURES MARKET 40 HOURS BEFORE KICKOFF

By Jason Weingarten  () 

For the purpose of this series, the unit size will be based on $100 because that makes accounting the easiest. Every Week I will be looking at updated and adjusted futures numbers from various sportsbook looking to add new bets to my portfolio. I am going to invest at least 25 units of my own money into this project.

One thing I will not be betting initially, and most likely not at all, are Super Bowl futures. I would rather focus on conference futures hoping to fnd long shot value on a team to make the Super Bowl and cash a winner before the Super Bowl, rather than bet long odds on a team making and having to win the Super Bowl.

For this initial article, I am using lines that are available at various offshore books and Circa in Las Vegas, and I am not using Westgate because they updated their app last week and you have to log-in now and can’t log-in from out of state. As the season goes on, I will post lines any lines I fnd that are widely available. On the spreadsheet included I will post the odds of the bet and the odds available at Circa if the same bet is listed. Make sure to shop around if you can. Circa has some competitive numbers.

None of the books are paying me to mention them, so if you are wondering why I am using 5Dimes and not Heritage, it’s because Heritage limited me to $50 a few months ago and 5Dimes still lets me bet $100 on futures, which isn’t a lot but its fne for this kind of stuff.

CRIS/Bookmaker

CRIS has a boring assortment of props and futures, only found one bet I would play. First Coach Fired – No coach fred 1237 1x Pinnacle Defensive Player of the Year – Darius Leonard 3900

• As a rookie in 2018 Leonard led the Colts defense both in total snaps (956) and % of snaps (91.31%), while leading the entire NFL with 163 tackles. Seven sacks and two interceptions didn’t hurt either. The Colts might have suffered an offensive downgrade with the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck but they return a good defense that looks to get better.

Cleveland Browns to make the playofs Yes 103

5Dimes

Baltimore Ravens to make the playofs – Yes 170 (also available at Circa at 175)

• The 2019 Ravens have one of the best cornerback combos in the league with a healthy Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey, having future Hall of Famer Earl Thomas at safety behind them doesn’t hurt. The Ravens defensive backfeld gives them a great opportunity to make the AFC playoffs and lose to the Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playofs – NO -195

• This team bores me. Seattle Seahawks to make the playofs - Yes 155 Ben Roethlisberger wins Regular season MVP 3650

• That’s the same price as Jared Goff, and more importantly Roethlisberger MVP is 2000 at CRIS and 2900 at Pinnacle.

• Ben Roethlisberger passing yards over 4459.5 -125

Carson Wentz season passing TD’s under 30.5 -140

• This next bet and fnal bet is my favorite bet. Unfortunately the only place I’ve seen it is 5Dimes and I can only bet $100. To reach the AFC Conference Final - New England Patriots 135 (I would play this down to 105)

• Barring major injuries the Patriots are likely to receive a frst round bye, meaning to win this bet we’d simply need the Patriots to win a single home playoff game, where they will certainly be favored over opponent.

Circa

AP Ofensive Rookie of the Year – Jared Stidham 10000

• Here me out. Tom Brady is 42 years old. The NFL is unforgiving and the end eventually comes for every player. 42 isn’t old in NFL years, its ancient. For players who stick around too long the end is not pretty. Brett Favre in his age 41 season ended his career plastered to the turf vs. New Orleans blinking and drooling. Steve Young in his 38 year old season suffered two concussions in the frst three games, the latter one which ended his career.

• Nobody, not even Tom Brady, is guaranteed another game in the NFL. If you wanted to skip this bet and save $100 I wouldn’t fault you, but 100/1 is an implied probability of approximately 0.99%. I would say there is more than a 0.99% chance Tom Brady is injured in the frst four weeks of the season playing behind an offensive line with two new starters.

The total initial risk for these twelve bets is $1250, and all wagers were made Sept. 3.

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