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Sharp action tells tale of Week 13 heading into MNF

NFL dogs barked on Sunday, going 7-5 ATS with six straight-up victories. Dogs are now 9-6 ATS in Week 13 including the Thursday Thanksgiving games. For the season, dogs improve to 105-81 ATS (56.5%). 

Overall, yesterday was a big day for sharps, contrarian bettors and sportsbooks. Of the seven most lopsided bet games yesterday (in which one team was receiving at least two-thirds of tickets), only one public side covered (the Packers beat the Giants 31-13 as 6.5-point favorites). 

In the most heavily bet game of the day, the Texans upset the Patriots 28-22 on Sunday Night Football. Roughly three-out-of-four bets were on New England but the Texans received sharp reverse line movement plus 3.5 to plus 3.

The Bengals upset the Jets 22-6. Roughly three-out-of-four bets were on New York, but Cincinnati received sharp reverse line movement plus 3.5 to plus 2.5.

The biggest upsets of the day were the Dolphins (plus 10) shocking the Eagles 37-31 and the Redskins (plus 10.5) upending the Panthers 29-21. Both teams received only about one-third of bets and closed roughly plus 400 to plus 450 on the moneyline. 

The other three contrarian dogs to cash were the Steelers (plus 1, beat Browns 20-13), the Broncos (plus 4, beat Chargers 23-20) and the 49ers (plus 6, lost to the Ravens 20-17 but covered).

Sharps also won big on two favorites: the Titans and Bucs. Both teams saw a huge line move in their favor. As we discussed on the Lombardi Lines yesterday, Tennessee was arguably the top wiseguy play of the day. The Titans opened as a 3-point dog, were steamed all the way down to -1 and beat Indianapolis 31-17. Tampa Bay opened plus 1, received heavy sharp and public support, closed -3 and beat the Jags easily 28-11. 

The only other favorites to cover aside from the Titans and Bucs were the Packers, the Chiefs (-11, crushed Raiders 40-9) and the Rams (-2.5, beat Cardinals 34-7). 

Today we have 21 college basketball games, 6 NBA games, 5 NHL games and, of course, Monday Night Football. For an updated betting breakdown of Monday's action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Until then, let's discuss where smart money is falling for the final NFL game of Week 13. 

8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (8-3) at Seattle Seahawks (9-2)

This Monday Night showdown is a possible NFC playoff preview, with both teams a combined 17-5 record. Minnesota is tied with the Packers for first place in the NFC North. The Vikings are riding a two-game winning streak, most recently beating the Broncos 27-23 but failing to cover as 10-point favorites. Minnesota is plus 84 in point differential, averaging 26.27 PPG on offense and allowing 18.64 PPG on defense. Seattle has won four straight, most recently defeating the Eagles 17-9 as a 2-point road favorite. Seattle is plus 29 in point differential, averaging 26.55 PPG on offense and allowing 23.91 PPG on defense. With the 49ers losing to the Ravens yesterday, the Seahawks can assume first place in the NFC West with a win tonight (both teams would be 10-2 but Seattle would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Francisco).

The Seahawks opened as 3-point home favorites. Two-thirds of bets are laying the points with Seattle at home. However, despite this lopsided public support, the line has fallen to 2.5. This signals a sharp reverse line move toward the Vikings, with pros grabbing Minnesota at the key number of plus 3. The Vikings have value as a road dog (69-44 ATS, 61.1% this season) and a short road dog plus 6 or less (46-32 ATS, 59%). The Vikings are also coming off a bye, which means they enjoy added rest and extra time to game-plan. The Seahawks are on regular rest having played last week. Seattle is 5-1 ATS on the road but just 1-4 ATS at home. 

The total opened at 48.5. The public sees a high total with two good defensive teams and a majority of bets are taking the under. However, we've seen this line rise to 50, signaling sharp money on a rare contrarian over. Both teams are 6-5 to the over this season. The weather shouldn't be a factor. It's expected to be partly cloudy, mid 40s with little to no wind. Prime-time unders are 25-14 (64.1%) this season. Clete Blakemen, the head official, favors road teams (52.8% ATS) and unders (54.4%) historically.

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