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Sharp action leans toward Bears plus 3 and Under

Week 14 of the NFL kicks off tonight with the Cowboys and Bears on Thursday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET). With just four games left in the regular season, we are officially entering crunch time for teams fighting for the playoffs. With an eye toward the postseason and player awards, here are the latest Super Bowl, MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year odds from Circa Sports. 

Super Bowl 

Ravens plus 275

Saints plus 400

Patriots plus 450

49ers plus 850

Chiefs plus 900

Seahawks plus 975

Packers plus 1600

Vikings plus 2000

Texans plus 2500


Lamar Jackson -400

Russell Wilson plus 500

Aaron Rodgers plus 1700

Deshaun Watson plus 2000

Patrick Mahomes plus 2000

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Josh Jacobs plus 120 

Kyler Murray plus 300

Gardner Minshew plus 500

Daniel Jones plus 700

DK Metcalf plus 1200

For an updated betting breakdown of Thursday's action (10 college basketball games, 4 NBA games and 9 NHL games), be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Until then, let's discuss where smart money is flowing for tonight''s biggest game. 

8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

This Thursday Night Football showdown features two teams with identical 6-6 records. But they are trending in opposite directions. The Cowboys have lost two in a row and three of their last four, most recently falling to the Bills 26-15 on Thanksgiving as 6.5-point favorites. Dallas is plus 74 in point differential, averaging 25.83 PPG on offense and allowing 19.67 PPG on defense. On the flip side, the Bears have won two in a row and three of their last four, most recently beating the Lions 24-20 on Thanksgiving (but failing to cover the closing line of -5.5). Chicago is plus 4 in point differential, averaging 17.67 PPG on offense and allowing 17.33 PPG on defense. Dallas is 7-5 ATS while Chicago is 3-9 ATS.

The Cowboys opened as 3-point road favorites. The public still believes in Dallas and expects a bounce-back game from a team that is "due." Roughly three-out-of-four bets are laying the points, however this line has remained at 3. It's even briefly dipped to 2.5 throughout the week. Never once has it risen to 3.5. This sharp line freeze and reverse line movement signals pro money buying low on the Bears at home at the key number of plus 3. 

Sharps have also leaned on the under. The total opened at 43.5 and has remained the same or briefly dipped to 43. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds at Soldier Field. The under is 27-16 (63%) this season when the wind blows 10 MPH or more (56% since 2003). Primetime unders are 25-15 (62.5%) this season. The over is 7-5 in Cowboys games this season but the under is 8-4 in Bears games. 

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