With the 2021-22 college basketball season getting underway this week, it’s helpful to find common traits among teams that have started the season very hot or very cold from a betting perspective.
I’ll be looking at the shared characteristics of teams from the last five seasons that have gone at least four games above .500 (about 70 percent ATS) or four games below .500 (about 30 percent ATS) in their first 10 games of the season. In that five-year stretch, 162 teams started hot and 170 started cold. I do this analysis by picking out 13 key categories and charting the current 358 Division I teams as to how closely they match these categories heading into the 2021-22 season. Here are the 13 characteristics:
— Steve Makinen’s Power Rating.
— Steve Makinen’s Power Rating adjustment since the end of last season.
— Number of returning starters.
— Total returning player minutes.
— Amount of improvement or decline experienced last season SU.
— Amount of improvement or decline experienced against point spreads last season.
— Offensive points per game improvement or decline last season.
— Defensive points per game improvement or decline last season.
— Point differential from last season.
— Won-lost record from last season.
— ATS record from last season.
— Number of close wins or losses last season.
— Record in final 10 games of last season.
A lot of these traits define how ready a team might be for the coming season and whether that program is trending in the right or wrong direction. This is what bettors need to look for as they speculate on teams’ expected early-season performances.
Shared Traits Of Previous Hot-Starting Teams
The following is a list of traits shared by teams that would be considered hot-starting teams over the last five seasons — those that were at least four games over .500 ATS in their first 10 games. Again, 162 teams since the start of the 2016 season accomplished this. So finding several teams that reach this feat can go a long way in building your early-season college basketball bankroll.