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One of my favorite habits in looking for futures wagers is to compare the resumes of current teams with those of previous champions. That is a good way to discover which teams have the pedigree to accomplish something special. In these comparisons, I look at all kinds of characteristics, from strength ratings to momentum to raw statistics. Some of you probably know the most popular application for me in this methodology is for the NCAA tournament, as annually I look for potential surprise teams, upset victims, Final Four contenders and eventual champions. Last week I conducted this exercise to find potential early contenders for this year’s college basketball crown.
This week I’ll take a look at teams vying for the Super Bowl title. The current futures odds at the sportsbooks reveal the opinions of the experts, but these aren’t always built on resumes. More often they are formed simply from won-lost records, recent games or even from where the most money is coming in. I believe my method for finding shared characteristics from previous success stories provides bettors more concrete evidence on which to base wagers. So let’s check some of the key statistical characteristics each team boasts now compared with Super Bowl teams of the last 20 years.
The stats I have chosen to use encompass the entire regular season. The savvy bettor could take this a step or two further in looking for recency trends or various streaks. For instance, the Buccaneers got hot at the right time last season, winning their final four games of the regular season and then sweeping four postseason games. However, they also had a stretch of torrid offensive play in the first half of the season that proved they were capable of making a run. The 2019 Chiefs also ended the season on a tear and played their best defensive ball in their six-game winning streak to close the regular season. That gave the Chiefs the balance they needed to win their first title. You could point to huge stretches of great play by several teams in 2021, including the Packers, Colts and Patriots.