Seeley: EPL Best Bets for this weekend

By Nigel Seeley  (VSiN.com) 

epl

Nigel Seeley here, looking forward to another round of EPL fixtures and selecting for you my top 3 picks of the weekend’s action. We have had a superb two weeks with a winning run of 7-0 and I am very hopeful we will keep our excellent winning run going.

Manchester City vs. Brighton (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

Man City arrives at this game still hurting from its first defeat of the EPL season in last Sunday’s 1-0 reversal at Liverpool. I have a very strong feeling that they will come back with a convincing win and Brighton may be in for a torrid time.

Under Pep Guardiola, City historically always bounces back in impressive style after dropping points. On two occasions this season, Manchester City have had disappointing draws. The following games resulted in impressive 4-2 and 4-0 wins.

So, City to win of course, but why is my pick in this one on them to win to nil? Well, they have already beaten Bournemouth, Southampton and Nottingham Forest to nil at the Etihad this season. Considering that to win this game they are -500 on the money line, then the -108 to win to nil makes strong appeal.

The previous five times this fixture has been played, City has won this game to nil. Brighton arrives here out of form and is yet to win a game under their new manager Roberto de Zerbi. They have not scored a goal in their last three games and I think after Saturday that will be four!

I take Manchester City to make a statement in front of their fans.

Pick: Manchester City to Win to Nil -108

Chelsea vs. Manchester Utd (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)

This is the biggest match of the weekend featuring two teams who, if I am honest, I am still undecided about. One thing, however, I can be certain of is that both their relatively new managers have made them far stronger defensively than they were.

Let’s deal with Chelsea first. Under new boss Graham Potter, they are unbeaten in seven games and in the last five of those games they have not conceded a goal. As I have written before, Potter has quickly established his brand of football at the club and convinced all at Chelsea and their fans that he is the right man and they can buy into his methods.

On Wednesday evening, Manchester United played its best football of the season in their comfortable and impressive 2-0 victory over Tottenham. Erik ten Haag has, like Potter at Chelsea, really stamped his views on the defense and they have not conceded a goal in their last three games.

Cristiano Ronaldo has clearly fallen out with his manager and after his display of petulance in midweek, ten Hag has made the difficult decision to drop the five-time Balon d’Or winner from the squad this weekend. When we have seen CR7 on the field, I still think United is a bigger threat offensively with him in the team than without. In its last three games, the Under 2.5 goals has cashed and it has to be the pick in this game at a surprisingly high + 108.

A more speculative pick for the pizza money would be no goal scorer at a big-looking + 1100. My 0-0 detector has certainly been bleeping away in my office and, of course in that situation, the pick is always no goal scorer as own goals do not count.

So, a tight defensive encounter with Under 2.5 goals the clear pick at + 108.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals + 108

Leeds vs. Fulham (Sunday, 9 a.m. ET)

Leeds actually played really well against Arsenal last week, but try as they might, they just could not put the ball in the net. I find it very hard to believe that Leeds could create that many chances again and not score goals and possibly a few!

Patrick Bamford, the Leeds star striker, had a match he would happily forget against Arsenal, including missing a crucial penalty kick. He will be desperate to put that behind him and is usually a very solid player. I expect Fulham to provide plenty of chances for Leeds. For all its defensive frailties, Fulham certainly creates plenty of chances for themselves as well and I see this game being a good match to watch for neutrals as well as providing the Over pick.

It is no surprise to me that in nine of the 10 games in the EPL this season featuring Fulham the Over 2.5 goals has cashed. In those nine games, BTTS “Yes” cashed as well, proving the point of Fulham games featuring chances at both ends.

Given I feel that Leeds can come good and sort out its finishing in front of an expectant Elland Road crowd, I like the Overs in what should be an entertaining watch.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals -136

Good luck, and let’s keep cashing those tickets!

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