About once a season, I like to dig through my database and look for extremes in MLB games to see how teams respond in the next game. For instance, if a team explodes for an unusual number of runs or hits, does it carry over into the next game? How about if a team’s bullpen gets extensive usage in a game, how does that play out the following day? Let’s take a look at some of these betting systems that have produced intriguing results in the first half of the MLB season and see if we can put them to use in the final 2 1/2 months.
System No. 1: Avoid home teams in non-divisional games that were shut out the prior game
· Home teams that were shut out in their prior game are just 15-27 in non-divisional games this year for -17 units, a return on investment of -40.5%.
Steve’s take: Hitting, or lack thereof, can be contagious. Factor in the absence of motivation that would come with facing a division opponent and it seems these offensive droughts can carry over from game to game, even for a team playing at home. In fact, if anything, these teams fall victim to overpricing because they are at home against a less-familiar opponent. These 42 teams were outscored by an average of 5.0-3.9 in the follow-up game.