Seahawks, Vikings look more like pretenders

By Jeff Fogle  (VSiN.com) 

August 18, 2019 12:31 AM

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings are “tweeners” entering the 2019 season. Neither is currently seen as the same class as NFC favorites New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams. But both are rated clear playoff threats, a cut above the rest of the parity-racked NFL. 

With those two pairing off in prime time Sunday (FOX, 8 p.m. ET), handicappers would be well served to review what kept both out of the championship chase last season.

What will jump out first is a poor record vs. top competition. Minnesota failed to make the playoffs, and went 0-6 straight up against teams who did. Not a single litmus test victory. Seattle earned a wildcard, but lost in the postseason at Dallas. The Seahawks went 2-4 straight up in the regular season vs. playoff qualifiers. That’s a combined 2-11 overall vs. playoff teams.

Outside of those challenges, both played soft schedules. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings at USA Today show Seattle playing the #25 ranked schedule (out of 32 teams), Minnesota just behind at #26. 

To this point, both teams look more like pretenders than contenders.

A big difference between the two was the turnover department. Seattle led the NFL with a plus 15 differential. That was keyed by a league-fewest 11 giveaways. Russell Wilson’s offense should be able to continue avoiding high impact miscues. But differential is a fickle category that’s hard to dominate two years in a row.

Minnesota was dead even. Turnovers have a way of following quarterback Kirk Cousins around, but the Vikings do have an elite defense. Poor opposing offenses have little hope of putting up points on the purple people eaters. 

Entering 2019, betting markets are slightly more bullish on Minnesota according to these odds from William Hill:

Regular-Season Wins

Minnesota sits at 9, with the Over juiced to -125 (risk $125 to win $100 that the Vikings will clear their hurdle). Seattle is 8.5, but with higher vig at -140. Both trail the Rams and Saints (10.5 with Under juice) and Philadelphia (10). 

Odds to win the NFC

Minnesota is 10/1 (9% percentage equivalent), while Seattle is 12/1 (8%). Remember that sports books build a universe larger than 100% to create a house edge. The NFC race could get very exciting with these two plus Chicago (whose brutal schedule we discussed Friday), Green Bay, and Dallas all hoping to chase down the Rams, Saints, and Eagles. 

Odds to win the Super Bowl

You can commonly double conference futures prices to get Super Bowl odds. The championship game is seen as a 50/50 math prospect this far in advance. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota is 20/1 (5%), Seattle 25/1 (4%). 

Handicappers should plan to evaluate these September litmus tests: Seattle at Pittsburgh (9/15), Minnesota at Green Bay (9/15), New Orleans at Seattle (9/22), Minnesota at Chicago (9/29). 

Today’s tweeners won’t be “playoff caliber” until they win more often vs. other playoff contenders. 

back to news

QuickPicks_300x250_080920_NFLkickoff

Headlines

View All
  • Wednesday Line Moves for UFC Fight Island 8

    Wednesday Line Moves for UFC Fight Island 8

    Happy Wednesday! Today we have a loaded betting menu featuring 30-plus  college basketball games, 10 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown...
  • Magny should shine in Fight Island 8

    Magny should shine in Fight Island 8

    Wednesday’s UFC event begins at 6 a.m. Pacific Time, so the theme might as well be Beatdowns and Bagels. Max Holloway dominated Calvin Kattar...
  • Watch bombers in Palm Springs event

    Watch bombers in Palm Springs event

    Kevin Na shot 61-65 on the weekend to win the Sony Open in Hawaii at as high as 80-1 odds. Na (40-1) will attempt to win in back-to-back weeks this week...
  • Schedule critical in CBB futures bets

    Schedule critical in CBB futures bets

    Last week we discussed the importance of taking a positive approach to college basketball futures betting. That is, focus on playing plus numbers instead...
  • First impressions as hockey returns

    First impressions as hockey returns

    It’s great to have hockey back, but bettors must temper their expectations and trust their preseason projections. Therefore, this is a great time...
  • Tuley's Takes on Championship Sunday

    Tuley's Takes on Championship Sunday

    The NFL’s divisional playoff round was a mixed bag for us here at the Tuley’s Takes home office, though I spent Saturday at Circa with VSiN...
  • Injuries dog Chiefs, but Packers on roll

    Injuries dog Chiefs, but Packers on roll

    And then there were four. We’re looking forward to what is maybe the single best day on the NFL calendar: Championship Sunday. The matchups are...
  • Championship Sunday: Sifting recent trends

    Championship Sunday: Sifting recent trends

    For as different as this NFL season has been due to the impact of COVID-19, the first two weeks of the playoffs have generally followed the trends of...
  • How to gain edge betting CBB rematches

    How to gain edge betting CBB rematches

    (To view the charts with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) In a typical college basketball season, and to a lesser degree this season,...
  • Mahomes mystery puts oddsmakers in bind

    Mahomes mystery puts oddsmakers in bind

    It’s generally easy for oddsmakers to post lines on most NFL games. The numbers are typically airtight, unlike in college football. A quarterback...
  • Championship Sunday capsules

    Championship Sunday capsules

    NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Buccaneers at Packers (3:05 p.m. ET Sunday) The Packers opened as consensus four-point home favorites against the...
  • With Pacers surging, Clippers on long haul

    With Pacers surging, Clippers on long haul

    Another week gone, and bettors have yet to see any NBA team separate itself from the pack. The Los Angeles Lakers seem like the surest thing on the board,...

Google Play
App Store
Close