Last week we discussed the importance of taking a positive approach to college basketball futures betting. That is, focus on playing plus numbers instead of acting too soon on the presumptive favorite (at a minus price) for a wager that won’t be decided until months from the time it is made.
What happened to San Diego State last week, falling twice to Utah State, demonstrates how risky it can be to take a team at a minus number in January for a March tournament.
We suggested last week playing the Aggies at + 600 to win the Mountain West tournament based on that number and a lineup that places them on par with the top two teams, SDSU and Boise State. Recent success and a name far more recognizable to the public made the Aztecs the odds-on favorites to win the regular-season title and postseason tournament.
Those two USU wins and SDSU losing Matt Mitchell for an undetermined period have altered the dynamics in the MWC and make any ticket for the Aztecs at a minus price feel like a burden.