Saturday Week 3 College Football Sharp Report

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12 p.m. ET: Oklahoma (2-0, ranked 6th) at Nebraska (1-2)

Oklahoma is undefeated and ranked 6th in the country. The Sooners have outscored their opponents 78-16 and just crushed Kent State 33-3, although Oklahoma failed to cover as 33-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Nebraska just fell to Georgia Southern 45-42, losing outright as 23.5-point home favorites. Nebraska fired their head coach Scott Frost after last week's loss. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 14.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the Sooners. However, despite receiving 84% of bets we've seen Oklahoma fall from -14.5 to -11. Why would oddsmakers drop the spread to give out a better number on the Sooners when the public is already hammering them to begin with? Because wiseguys have grabbed Nebraska plus the points, causing sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog. The Cornhuskers have value as a super contrarian home unranked dog with a line move in their favor against a ranked opponent. Historically, we've seen teams get a boost in the first game after firing their head coach. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: BYU (2-0, ranked 12th) at Oregon (1-1, ranked 25th)

BYU is coming off a big 26-20 double-overtime win over 9th ranked Baylor, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon just crushed Eastern Washington 70-14, easily covering as 27-point home favorites. This line opened with Oregon listed as a 4-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 4 to 3.5, signaling pro money grabbing the points with road dog BYU. Short road dogs 4 or less are 54% ATS since 2016. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 56% ATS since 2016. BYU is getting 61% of bets but 78% of money, indicating moderate public support but heavy wiseguy action. Both teams are averaging roughly 37 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, with BYU allowing only 21 PPG compared to 32 PPG for Oregon. Pros have also leaned over, steaming the total up from 56 to 58. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Michigan State (2-0, ranked 11th) at Washington (2-0)

Michigan State just crushed Akron 52-0, easily covering as 34.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Washington just brushed aside Portland State 52-6, easily covering as 31-point home favorites. This line opened with Washington listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're rushing to the window to back Michigan State. However, we've seen this line move further to Washington, with the Huskies moving from -1 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Washington. The Huskies have rare value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. Washington is only receiving 21% of bets but 34% of money at DraftKings. The Huskies also have fishy buy-low value as an unpopular home favorite in a primetime "fade the trendy dog" spot. 

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