Saturday UFC Line Moves to Know About

February 20, 2021 08:24 AM

Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded all-day betting menu filled with 100+  college basketball games, 5 NBA games, 11 NHL games and, last but not least, UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis. For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher, Thomas Gable and myself this morning from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups, the top lines moves and breaking down late sharp action across all the major sports.

In the meantime, let's discuss some UFC line movement for tonight's 14-fight card at the Apex in Las Vegas.

Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis

This Heavyweight bout is the headliner and main event of the evening. Blaydes (14-2) is the 2nd ranked contender while Lewis (24-7) is 4th. Blaydes opened as a hefty -330 favorite and we've seen lopsided chalk action pound Blaydes, pushing him all the way up to -480. Blaydes has a youth advantage (30-years-old vs 36-years-old). He's also one-inch taller (6'3'' vs 6'2''') and has a longer reach (80'' vs 79'') and longer leg reach (46'' vs 43.5''). We've also seen some smart money hit this over. The total rounds is 1.5 and the over juice has moved from -160 to -200. Blaydes' average fight time is 9:15 and Lewis' is 9:55. Both of those average times would cash the 1.5 round over.

Jamall Emmers vs Chas Skelly

This Featherweight throwdown is on the early preliminary card. Emmers (18-5) opened as a -175 favorite and sharp money has come down in his favor, pushing the line up to -245. Emmers has several distinct advantages over Skelly (18-3). Emmers is younger (31-years-old vs 35-years-old) and has a longer reach (74'' vs 72.5''). Skelly is also returning to the ring for the first time in over a year, which may mean he's rusty. Historically, long layoffs have spelled doom for many fighters. There's also some liability on the over as it's listed at 2.5 rounds with -180 juice to the over. Of Emmers' 18 wins, 41% of them have come via decision.

Luis Pena vs Drakkar Klose

This Lightweight showdown is one of the last bouts on the preliminary card. It also features one of the biggest dog moves of the slate. This line opened with Klose (11-2-1) listed as a -200 favorite and Pena (8-3) a + 180 dog. We've seen respected action pour in on Pena, dropping him from + 180 to + 140. Pena has several physical advantages. He is younger (27 vs 32), taller (6'2'' vs 5'8''), and has a longer reach (75'' vs 70'') and leg reach (42.5'' vs 39'). We could also be looking at a longer fight. The total is 2.5 rounds with heavy over juice (-240 to -275). Of Klose's wins, 64% have come via decision.

Chris Daukaus vs Aleksei Oleinik

This Heavyweight grudge match is on the main card. Daukaus (10-3) opened as a -180 favorite over Oleinik (59-14-1). Respected money has come down on the favorite, driving Daukus up from -180 to -200. Foth fighters are similar in terms of height and reach. The one glaring discrepancy is age. Daukaus is only 31-years-old while Oleinik is 43-years-old. Historically, fighters over 35, and especially over 40, have struggled in the octagon. Oleinik is the oldest fighter in the UFC. This could also be a short fight. The total is 1.5 rounds and the under has moved from -155 to -185. Nearly 90% of Daukaus' wins have come via knockout or TKO.

More UFC Moves

Sergey Spivak -225 to -250 vs Jared Vanderaa

Shana Dobson + 190 to + 130 vs Casey O'Neill

Nate Landwehr -105 to -120 vs Julian Erosa

Danny Chavez -110 to -135 vs Jared Gordon

John Castaneda + 120 to -130 vs Eddie Wineland

Charles Rosa -175 to -190 vs Darrick Minner

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