Saturday Sharp Report (6-5)

June 5, 2021 12:35 AM

Today the weekend kicks off with 15 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game and 2 NHL playoff games. For extensive Saturday betting analysis, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves and late sharp action across all the major sports. We'll also talk Belmont Stakes with Millie Ball and check in with Thomas Gable at The Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Saturday games.

7:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets

This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Bucks are coming off a clean 4-0 sweep over the Heat in round one while the Nets brushed aside the Celtics 4-1. This Game 1 line opened with Brooklyn listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public respects the Bucks but also can't pass up the high-flying Nets laying a short number at home. However, despite a majority of bets backing the Nets, we've seen this line remain frozen at 4. Some shops have even dipped to 3.5 at times. Essentially, it appears all liability has been on the side of Milwaukee plus the points. These teams met three times in the regular season and the Bucks went 2-1. The total was set at a super high 239.5 and hasn't budged off the opener. High totals 220 or more are 19-8 (70.4%) to the over this postseason. These are two of the top six teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency. In their three regular season meetings, the final combined scores were 248, 242 and 231. The Nets are a -200 favorite to win this series at BetMGM. The Bucks are a + 165 underdog. 

9:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (34-25) at Colorado Rockies (23-35)

The Athletics took care of business in last night's series opener, winning 9-5 as -140 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Oakland sends out lefty Cole Irvin (3-7, 4.12 ERA) and Colorado counters with fellow southpaw Kyle Freeland (0-0, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with the Athletics listed as a short -124 road favorite and the Rockies a + 114 home dog. Respected money has come down on the Athletics, driving this line up from Oakland -124 to -131. Interleague favorites with a line move in their favor are 38-24 (61.3%) this season. Oakland also has value as a short road favorite -150 or less off a win (64-41, 61%). Oakland is one of the best teams in baseball against lefties, going 15-8. The Athletics are 23-14 as a favorite and 17-8 on the road. The Rockies are 16-31 as a dog. 

10:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets (27-22) at San Diego Padres (35-23)

The Padres have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 4-3 as -200 favorites and winning again Friday night 2-0 as -180 favorites. In tonights' third game of the four-game set, the Mets trot out ace Jacob DeGrom (4-2, 0.71 ERA) and the Padres hand the ball to righty Joe Musgrove (4-4, 2.08 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a short -125 road favorite and the Padres a + 115 home dog. The public can't believe they're getting DeGrom at such a low price and are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with New York. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen New York fall from -125 to -117. This signals some sharp reverse line movement grabbing the red-hot Padres as a rare home dog. San Diego has value as a contrarian dog off a win and a home dog who made the playoffs last year (5% ROI this season). The Padres are + 78 in run differential. The Mets are + 3. San Diego is 20-10 at home. New York is 12-18 on the road. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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