Saturday Sharp Action Report for WVU-Texas, Florida-Georgia and Clemson-Notre Dame

November 6, 2020 11:52 PM

Welcome to another action-packed Saturday of college football. We have roughly 40 games to choose from today, starting at noon ET and taking us well beyond midnight. For Saturday betting analysis and line movement updates, join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to kickoff.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of Saturday matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors.

Noon ET: West Virginia (4-2) at Texas (4-2, ranked 22nd)

This Big 12 grudge match features a pair of conference rivals coming off big wins. West Virginia just crushed Kansas State 37-10, easily covering as 5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Texas just upset Oklahoma State 41-34, winning outright as 3.5-point dogs. West Virginia is averaging 33 PPG on offense and allowing 20 PPG on defense, while Texas is averaging 44 PPG on offense but giving up 33 PPG on defense. This line opened with Texas listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is split, yet we've seen smart money pour in on the Mountaineers, dropping WVU from + 7 to + 5.5. WVU has buy-low value as an unranked road conference dog against a ranked opponent.

3:30 p.m. ET: Florida (3-1, ranked 8th) vs Georgia (4-1, ranked 5th)

This SEC showdown, known popularly as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party," is one of the most popular and most heavily bet games of the day. This is a neutral site game and will be played in Jacksonville at the Jaguars stadium. Florida is coming off a 41-17 thrashing of Missouri, covering as 13.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Georgia just defeated Kentucky 14-3 but failed to cover as 17-point favorites. Florida is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 42-29 while Georgia is beating their opponents by an average margin of 29-16. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 4.5-point favorite. Bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen this line tumble from Georgia -4.5 to -3. This signals respected wiseguy action grabbing the points with the Gators. Florida has value as a conference dog with a line move in their favor.

7:30 p.m. ET: Clemson (7-0, ranked 1st) at Notre Dame (6-0, ranked 4th)

This primetime battle between a pair of undefeated top five teams is the marquee matchup of the night. Clemson enters ranked first in the nation, outscoring their opponents 46-16. In their first game without star Trevor Lawrence, Clemson came from behind to beat Boston College 34-28, although they didn't come close to covering as 26.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Notre Dame just crushed Georgia Tech 31-13, also failing to cover as 20.5-point favorites. The Irish are outscoring their opponents by an average score of 35-10. This line opened with Clemson listed as a 5-point road favorite. A slight majority of bets, along with some respected money, is backing Clemson, which has pushed this line up to -6. We saw some buyback on Notre Dame at + 6, dropping the line back to Clemson -5.5, where it rests now. Essentially all liability has been on the Clemson side. Historically, when two ranked teams go head-to-head the favorite has covered at roughly a 56% clip the past decade, including 13-2 ATS this season.

More Saturday Line Moves

Arkansas + 2 to + 1 vs Tennessee

Stanford + 11.5 to + 8.5 at Oregon

Oregon State + 2.5 to -3 vs Washington State

Michigan State + 7 to + 5.5 at Iowa

Maryland-Penn State Over 63 to 64.5

ECU + 4 to + 3 vs Tulane

Arkansas State-UL Lafayette over 66.5 to 68

North Carolina -10.5 to -11.5 at Duke

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