Saturday Sharp Action Report for Texas A&M-Auburn, BC-Virginia, WVU-Iowa State

December 5, 2020 03:24 AM

Welcome to Week 14 of the College Football season. Despite a dozen postponements due to COVID-19, we still have roughly 40 games to choose from today, starting at nooon ET and taking us well beyond midnight.

For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher, Mike Palm, Thomas Gable and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups, the top lines moves and breaking down late sharp action leading up to kickoff.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of Saturday matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors.

12 p.m. ET: Texas A&M (6-1, ranked 5th) at Auburn (5-3)

This SEC matchup looks like an easy blowout on paper. Texas A&M has won five straight, most recently beating LSU 20-7 but failing to cover as 15.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Auburn just got waxed by Alabama 42-13, failing to cover as 24.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public says give me the highly ranked Aggies laying a short spread against an unranked team that just got blown out. However, despite a majority of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall from Texas A&M -6.5 to -5.5. This indicates respected wiseguy money buying low on Auburn at home plus the points. The Tigers have value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. Pro money has also come down on this under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48. Both teams are profitable to the under, with Texas A&M 4-3 and Auburn 7-1.


3:30 p.m. ET: Boston College (6-4) at Virginia (4-4)

This ACC showdown features one of the sharpest line moves of the day. Boston College has won two of their last three games and just beat Louisville 34-27, covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Virginia got off to an awful 1-4 start but has since won three straight, most recently crushing Abilene Christian 55-15, covering as 38.5-point home favorites. Virginia didn't play last week as their game against Florida State was postponed due to COVID. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know whether to take or lay the points. However, despite this even ticket count, we've seen Virginia tumble from -6.5 to -3.5. This signals heavy pro money Boston College plus the points. The Eagles have value as a road conference dog with a line move. Short road dogs + 4 or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade.

3:30 p.m. ET: West Virginia (5-3) at Iowa State (7-2, ranked 9th)

This Big 12 grudge match has major bragging rights and postseason aspirations on the line. West Virginia has won two of their last three games and just took down TCU 24-6, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. West Virginia is on a "bye" week as their most recent game against Oklhoma was postponed. On the other hand, Iowa State has won four straight games, including a 23-20 win over Texas last week as a 1.5-point road favorite. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is leaning on laying the points with the ranked Cyclones at home against an unranked opponent. However, we've seen this line move toward West Virginia + 7 to + 6.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the Mountaineers. We've also seen some over money hit the market, driving the total up slightly from 48.5 to 49.5. The weather should be perfect: mid 40s, clear and little to no wind.

More Saturday Line Moves

Fresno State + 7 to + 6.5 at Nevada

Tulane -1.5 to -3 vs Memphis

Wyoming -16.5 to -18 at New Mexico

UCLA + 4 to + 3 at Arizona State

Iowa -12.5 to -13.5 at Illinois

Utah -10 to -11.5 vs Oregon State

Tulsa -11 to -12 at Navy

Penn State -10.5 to -12 at Rutgers

Georgia Tech + 7 to + 6.5 at NC State

Arkansas-Missouri Over 51.5 to 53.5

Kansas-Texas Tech Under 64.5 to 62.5

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