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Saturday Sharp Action Report for Navy-Army, Wisconsin-Iowa and UNC-Miami

December 12, 2020 02:00 AM

Welcome to Week 15 of the College Football season. Despite a dozen postponements due to COVID-19, we still have roughly 35 games to choose from today, starting at noon ET and taking us well beyond midnight.

For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher, Mike Palm, Thomas Gable and myself from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups, the top lines moves and breaking down late sharp action leading up to kickoff.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of Saturday matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors.

3 p.m. ET: Navy (3-6) at Army (7-2)

This legendary matchup has been played every year since 1890. But for the first time in 77 years it will be played at West Point -- making it a true home game for Army. The winner takes home the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy. After starting the season 3-2, Navy has lost four straight, most recently falling to Tulsa 19-6 last week. Meanwhile, Army's only two losses this season came against Cincinnati and Tulane. Last week, Army beat Georgia Southern 28-27 but failed to cover as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Army listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Tickets are relatively split, but we've seen an overload of respected money lay the points with Army, driving this line up to -7.5. Army enjoys a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while Navy played last week. Pro money is also expecting a low scoring game, driving the total down from 39 to 37.5. The under has cashed in 14-straight Army-Navy games.

3:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin (2-2) at Iowa (5-2, ranked 16th)

This Big Ten showdown is one of the most heavily bet games of the late afternoon slate. Wisconsin started the season 2-0 but has since lost two straight, including a disappointing 14-6 loss to Indiana last week as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa started the season 0-2 but has since gone 5-0. Last week Iowa beat Illinois 35-21, covering as 13.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is relatively split, yet we've seen this line completely flip from Wisconsin + 2 to -2. Essentially, the Badgers have received sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. We've also seen an overload of respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 41.5. Weather could play a big role in this one. The forecast calls for low 30s with snow and 10-15 MPH winds.

3:30 p.m. ET: North Carolina (7-3, ranked 17th) at Miami Florida (8-1, ranked 10th)

All eyes are on this ACC matchup between top ranked teams. North Carolina has won three of their last four and just crushed Western Carolina 49-9. Similarly, Miami has won five straight and just blanked Duke 48-0. North Carolina is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 41-29 while Miami is averaging wins of 35-22. This line opened with Miami listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Some books opened closer to Miami -4.5. The public sees Miami as an auto-bet at this point, but we've seen some respected money hit the Tar Heels plus the points, dropping the line down to the key number of 3. Miami has value as a conference road dog and a short road dog + 4 or less (roughly 56% ATS the last decade). We've also seen a steady dose of over money show up, raising the total from 66 to 70.

More Saturday moves

Rutgers + 7.5 to + 6.5 at Maryland

Western Michigan + 3 to pick'em at Ball State

Eastern Michigan -4 to -6 vs Northern Illinois

Nebraska -9 to -10.5 vs Minnesota

Utah + 2.5 to -1 at Colorado

Wyoming + 11.5 to + 9.5 vs Boise State

San Diego State-BYU Under 49.5 to 47

UNLV + 21 to + 19 at Hawaii

Washington State + 3 to + 1 vs Cal

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