Saturday Sharp Action Report for MTSU-Army, Raptors-Celtics and Nuggets-Clippers

September 5, 2020 12:20 AM

Friday was a banner day for NBA sharps as playoff dogs went a perfect 2-0 straight up and ATS. The Heat dismantled the Bucks 115-100 to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. Miami received both Pro and Joe support, falling from + 5.5 to + 5 late and cashing + 180 on the moneyline. In the late game, the Rockets cashed a blueprint sharp/contrarian play, beating the Lakers 112-97 to take a 1-0 series lead. Despite receiving less than half the tickets, Houston fell from + 7 to + 6.5, signaling wiseguy reverse line movement in their favor (Houston even dipped to + 6 at one point). 

Unders continued their dominance, going 2-0. Unders are now 13-3 since last Saturday and 29-21 (58%) this postseason. 

One the ice, the Stars (+ 100) beat the Avs 5-4 in overtime and the Knights (-220) blanked the Canucks 3-0 to win their respective Game 7's and advance to the Conference Finals. The last remaining Round 2 Game 7 is today between the Islanders and Flyers. 

Here are the updated Stanley Cup Champion odds at BetMGM

Knights + 165

Lightning + 175

Stars + 500

Islanders + 900

Flyers + 900

Today we have a Saturday betting bonanza with 2 NBA games, 1 NHL game, 17 MLB games, College Football, Kentucky Derby and UFC. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For more Saturday analysis and betting updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action across MLB, NBA, NHL and more. 

1:30 p.m. ET: Middle Tennessee State at Army

Welcome to the first College Football Saturday of the year! Middle Tennessee State is coming off a 4-8 season in 2019 while Army went 5-8. According to Jeff Sagarin's power ratings, MTSU is ranked 101st in college football and Army is 79th. This line opened with Army listed as a 5-point home favorite. Despite two-thirds of spread bets laying the points, we've seen this line dip to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on MTSU plus the points. The hook could be crucial as some books are inching closer to 3. Short road dogs + 4 or less have been a profitable bet historically in College Football. 

6:30 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics

This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Celtics lead 2-1 but could (and should) be up 3-0 if not for the last-second buzzer beater by the Raptors' O.G. Anunoby in Game 3. This line opened with Toronto listed as a 1.5-point favorite. Roughly two-thirds of bets, both Pros and Joes, are grabbing the points with Boston. Wiseguys immediately hit Boston + 1.5 as soon as this line opened. This lopsided action has dropped the line from Raptors -1.5 to -1. It looks like it may even fall further to a pick'em. The under is 3-0 this series, but sharps aren't scared away. We've also seen some smart money hit the over, pushing it up from 213 to 214. The Raptors opened as a -150 favorite to win the series at BetMGM, with Boston a + 125 dog. The updated series price with Boston up 2-1 is Celtics -200, Raptors + 165. 

9 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers

This Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Clippers lead 1-0 after waxing the Nuggets 120-97 in the series opener, easily covering as 9.5-point favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as an 8.5-point favorite. Pros immediately rushed to the window to lay the points, pushing the line up from Clippers -8.5 to -9. We saw a little bit of buyback on Nuggets + 9. Denver is only receiving roughly a third of spread bets, which means they will have contrarian value in a heavily bet, primetime game. The Clippers are -10000 favorites to win this series, which translates to a 99% implied probability. The Nuggets are + 2500. 

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks  and for other legalized states

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