Saturday Sharp Action Report for Cincinnati-Central Florida, Liberty-NC State and Oklahoma State-Oklahoma

November 21, 2020 12:16 AM

Welcome to another action packed Saturday of college football. Despite nearly a dozen postponements due to COVID-19, we still have roughly 40 games to choose from today, starting at noon ET and taking us well beyond midnight.

For extensive Saturday betting analysis and line movement updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to kickoff.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of Saturday matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors.

3:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati (7-0, ranked 7th) at Central Florida (5-2)

This American Conference matchup is one of the one of the most heavily bet games of the day. Cincinnati enters undefeated, having just crushed East Carolina 55-17 and easily covered as 27.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Central Florida is riding a three-game winning streak. Last week UCF took down Temple 38-13, although they failed to cover as 28.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the highly ranked Bearcats, which pushed this line up to Cincy -6. But then, over the past 48-hours, we've seen a steady dose of UCF money show up, dropping this line down to 5 or even 4.5 across the board. Central Florida has value as an unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent with late sharp movement. UFC is also your top contrarian play as only one-third of bets are backing the Knights. In other words, if you're looking to bet against the public and place yourself on the side of the house, UFC is your play. Unranked teams against ranked opponents are 63-52 ATS (55%) this season. We've also seen Pros and Joes hit this over, driving the total up from 62.5 to 65.5.

7:30 p.m. ET: Liberty (8-0, ranked 21st) at NC State (5-3)

This primetime showdown is arguably the top Pros vs Joes game of the day. Liberty enters undefeated, having just crushed Western Carolina 58-14, covering as 39-point home favorites. Similarly, NC State just took down Florida State 38-22, covering as 12-point home favorites. This line opened with NC State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is the "inferior" team NC State listed as the favorite? If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is. The public says give me undefeated Liberty plus the points, yet we've seen this line move further toward NC State (-3.5 to -5). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Wolfpack with pro money fading trendy dog Liberty. NC State has value as a rare contrarian favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. Both teams are 6-2 to the over. Despite this trend, we've seen the total drop from 67 to 65.5, signaling sharp under money.

7:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State (5-1, ranked 14th) at Oklahoma (5-2, ranked 18th)

This primetime Big 12 grudge match features two ranked teams and bitter rivals battling for in-state bragging rights. Oklahoma State just took down Kansas State 20-18, although they failed to cover as 14-point favorites. On the flip side, Oklahoma just crushed Kansas 62-9, easily covering as 38.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public has no problem laying the wood with the high-scoring Sooners. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing the home favorite, we've seen this line tumble down to Sooner -7. Why would the line drop if the public is backing Oklahoma? Because respected pro money has gotten down on Oklahoma State plus the points, causing a sharp line move in their direction. OK State has value as a conference road dog against a ranked opponent. We've seen some pro money hit this over, jacking up the total from 59 to 60.5. 

More Saturday Line Moves

Boise State-Hawaii Under 63 to 56 (20 MPH winds)

Alabama -30 to -32 vs Kentucky

Penn State + 3 to + 1 vs Iowa

Michigan -7.5 to -11.5 at Rutgers

Oregon State + 5 to + 3 vs California

Duke + 6 to + 4.5 vs Wake Forest

UTSA -8 to -10 at Southern Miss

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