Saturday Sharp Action Report for Bucs-Lions, 49ers-Cardinals and Dolphins-Raiders

December 26, 2020 12:08 AM

We have a robust Saturday betting menu that includes three NFL games, three college football bowl games, 10 NBA games and a loaded college hoops slate. For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher, Mike Palm, Thomas Gable and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups, the top lines moves and breaking down late sharp action across all the major spots.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for Saturday's three NFL matchups...

1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

The Bucs (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) have gotten back on track and won two straight, including a come-from-behind 31-27 win over the Falcons last week, although Tampa Bay failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. The Bucs are currently the 6-seed in the NFC playoffs but could rise to the 5-spot if they win out and the Rams stumble down the stretch. On the flip side, the Lions (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) have lost two straight and four of their last five, including a 46-25 loss to the Titans last week where they failed to cover as 8.5-point road dogs. Detroit has already been eliminated from playoff contention. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. We've seen both Pros and Joes rush to the window to back Tom Brady and the Bucs, which has pushed this line up from -7.5 to -9.5. Some shops that touched 10 got hit with some Lions + 10 buyback getting the key number. Saturday road teams are 2-0 ATS this season roughly 60% ATS over the past decade. The total is 54. Both teams are profitable to the over this season, with Tampa Bay 8-6 and Detroit 9-5. Detroit interim head coach Darrell Bevell will miss this game due to COVID-19 protocols.

4:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS) have had an awful second half of the season, losing three straight and six of their last seven. San Francisco fell to the Cowboys last week 41-33, failing to cover as 4-point road favorites. The 49ers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the Eagles 33-26 last week, covering as 6-point home favorites. Arizona currently occupies the 7th and final playoff spot in the NFC but needs to keep winning to fend off the Bears and Vikings. This line opened with the Cardinals listed as 3.5-point home favorites. The public (along with some early respected money) is all over Arizona, driving this line up to -5. The 49ers have value as a road divisional dog and a short road dog + 6 or less (64% ATS this season). Wiseguys are also eyeing the under as we've seen the total fall from 50 to 49. This would match a profitable late season divisional under trend. C.J. Beathard will start for the 49ers, who also welcome George Kittle back from injured reserve.

8:15 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

The Dolphins (9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS) are 8-2 over their last ten games and just beat the Patriots 22-12, easily winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Miami currently owns the 7th and final AFC playoff spot but Baltimore is breathing down their throats. Meanwhile, the Raiders (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) are crumbling at the wrong time, losing two straight and four of their last five. Las Vegas just fell to the Chargers 30-27 on Thursday night, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. The Raiders are technically still alive for a playoff spot but need to win out and get serious help in order to snag the last spot. This line originally opened with the Raiders listed as 2-point home favorites. But we've seen heavily lopsided action come down on the Dolphins, flipping Miami all the way to a 3-point road favorite. We've seen some sharp buyback hit Vegas at the key number of + 3. Vegas has value as a contrarian inflated home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Derek Carr is expected to start for Vegas after leaving last week's game early with a groin injury.

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