Saturday Sharp Action Report for Blue Jays-Phillies, Rays-Orioles and Celtics-Heat

September 19, 2020 12:33 AM

Today is one of our biggest college football Saturdays yet with roughly 20 games from which to choose. While the season is young, we have seen an early trend toward unders. Thus far, unders have cashed at roughly a 58% clip. This is likely a direct result from the lack of practice and unpredictable nature of the pandemic-influenced season. With so many opt-outs and new faces, the defenses appear to be ahead of the offenses, at least for now. 

One of the tried and true edges for under bettors is looking for games with strong winds. When the wind blows at least 10 MPH, we see an edge to unders because it's harder to throw the ball and make kicks. This leads to more running the ball, chewing up the clock and less scoring. 

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Combining the early season under edge with the windy advantage, here are the top windy unders for today, which also include under line movement.

  • UL Lafayette-Georgia State Under 60 to 57 (10 MPH winds)
  • Liberty-Western Kentucky Under 54 to 52 (10 MPH winds)
  • Navy-Tulane Under 50 to 47.5 (14 MPH winds)
  • Texas State-UL Monroe Under 63 to 61 (10 MPH winds)
  • Wake Forest- NC State Under 54.5to 52.5 (10 MPH winds) 

For more Saturday analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action across MLB, NBA, NHL and more. 

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In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of Saturday matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors.

6:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (26-25) at Philadelphia Phillies (26-25)

The Phillies swept yesterday's doubleheader against the Jays, winning 7-0 and 8-7. Tonight, Toronto sends lefty Hyun Jin Ryu (4-1, 3.00 ERA) to the mound while Philadelphia counters with righty Vince Velasquez (0-1, 6.46 ERA). The Blue Jays opened as -140 road favorites and the Phillies a + 130 dog. The public takes one look at the ERAs of both pitchers and says give me Toronto all day. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing the road favorite, we've seen the line move away from Toronto (-140 to -135) and toward Philadelphia (+ 130 to + 125). This signals sharps grabbing the surging Phillies as a plus-money dog. The Jays are 14-18 away and 16-18 against righties. The Phillies are 18-12 at home and 12-8 against righties. Toronto is -28 in run differential and Philadelphia is + 4. 

7:35 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (34-18) at Baltimore Orioles (22-30)

The Rays have won the first three games of this series and go for the sweep tonight in Baltimore. Tampa will start veteran Charlie Morton (1-2, 5.14 ERA) while the Orioles counter with Jorge Lopez (2-0, 5.23 ERA). The Rays opened as hefty -170 road favorites with the Orioles listed as + 155 home dogs. Pros aren't scared off by this big Tampa number and seem to think this line is a bit short. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Rays, pushing Tampa from -170 up to -180. It could rise even higher. Tampa is 17-9 away while Baltimore is just 12-19 at home. The Rays are + 50 in run differential while the Orioles are -12. Tampa is 25-11 against righties. Baltimore is 17-24 against righties. 

8:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

This is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat leads the series 2-0, winning and covering in both of the first two games. Miami won the first game 117-114 in overtime as a 2-point dog and won the second game 106-101 as a 3-point dog. This pivotal Game 3 opened with Boston listed as a 3-point favorite in a virtual must-win situation. Spread bets are split right down the middle, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. This signals smart money grabbing red-hot Miami and the points. We've also seen some heavy action on the total. It opened at a low 206.5 and we've seen a combination of both Pro and Joe money push it up to 207. With Miami up 2-0 in the series, the Heat are now -334 favorites (77% implied probability) to advance to the NBA Finals. If you think the Celtics can come back and win the series, Boston is + 260.

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