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Saturday Sharp Action Report for Arkansas State-KState, Phillies-Marlins and Knights-Stars

September 12, 2020 12:32 AM

Friday was another thrilling day in the NBA playoff bubble. In the early game, the Nuggets (+ 8.5) pulled off a massive upset for dog bettors, beating the Clippers 111-105 to stave off elimination and force a Game 6. Denver cashed + 330 on the moneyline. The total opened at 217 and sharps hit the under, dropping it to 216. It landed on 216, meaning early sharps cashed and late bettors pushed. The Clippers now lead the series 3-2. Los Angeles is a -2500 favorite (96.2%) to win and advance to the Western Conference Finals. Denver is + 1100 to win the next two games and pull off the epic comeback after being down 3-1.

In the late game, the Celtics took down the Raptors 92-87 to win Game 7. Boston covered as a 3-point favorite. The total stayed way under the closing line of 204. The under finished 6-1 in the series. Boston now advances to the Eastern Conference Finals where they will face the Miami Heat. Game 1 is set for Tuesday night. 

With the defending champion Raptors eliminated, here are the updated NBA title odds at BetMGM.

Lakers + 190

Clippers + 200

Celtics + 400

Heat + 450

Rockets + 6500

Nuggets + 12500

In the NHL, the Islanders cashed a huge play for wiseguys, upsetting the Lightning 5-3 to cut Tampa's series lead to 2-1. The Islanders received massive sharp line movement + 140 to + 115. 

Here are the updated Stanley Cup Champion odds

Lightning + 120

Golden Knights + 260

Stars + 350

Islanders + 800

Today we have our first full Saturday of College Football with roughly 20 games to choose from. We also have 1 NBA game, 1 NHL game, 16 MLB games and a full UFC slate. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For more Saturday analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action across MLB, NBA, NHL and more. 

Noon ET: Arkansas State at Kansas State


Arkansas State already has a game under their belt, losing to Memphis 37-24 but covering as 18-point dogs. Meanwhile, this is Kansas State's season opener. This line opened with K-State listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. Spread bets are relatively split and the public doesn't know whether to take or lay the points. However, we've seen steam load up on the Wildcats, pushing K-State from -10.5 to -13. Pros have also gotten down hard on the under, dropping the total from 57.5 to 54.5. The forecast calls for high 60s and 10 MPH winds. 

More College Football Line Movement

Syracuse-UNC Over 63.5 to 65.5

Army -16 to -22 vs UL Monroe

Georgia Tech-Florida State Under 54.5 to 52

UTEP-Texas Under 60 to 58

6:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (22-20) at Miami Marlins (21-20)

These two NL East foes split a doubleheader yesterday, with Philadelphia winning the first game 11-0 and Miami rebounding with a 5-3 win in the second game. Tonight, the Phillies send Spencer Howard (1-2, 5.66 ERA) to the hill to face Marlins Jose Urena (0-0, 5.40 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em with both teams listed at -105. Smart money has come down on the Phillies, pushing Philadelphia from -105 to -115. The Phillies are + 4 in run differential while the Marlins are -28. There is also liability on a higher scoring game with the total of 9 juiced up to over -120. 

8 p.m. ET: Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars

This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The Stars are coming off a 3-2 overtime win in which they cashed + 150 on the moneyline and took a 2-1 series lead. This game opened with Vegas listed as a -160 favorite and Dallas a + 145 underdog. This line has either stayed the same or inched slightly toward Vegas. Despite laying the big number, the Knights fit a profitable playoff experience system. Historically, teams who made the playoffs the previous year have been a smart bet coming off a loss. This speaks to the "rebound" factor of knowing what it takes to bounce back in pressure situations. We've also seen some smart money liability on the under, with the under 5.5 juiced up to -135. It may even fall to 5. Getting the hook is key if you're playing the under, that way a 3-2 games cashes instead of pushes. The under is 3-0 this series. 

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