Saturday NFL Wild Card Weekend Sharp Report: Seahawks-49ers and Chargers-Jags

January 14, 2023 12:25 AM

4:30 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 42)

The Seahawks (9-8) enter as the 7-seed and finished the regular season with a pair of wins. Seattle just took down the Rams 19-16 but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (13-4) are the 2-seed and have won ten straight games. San Francisco just crushed the Cardinals 38-13, covering as 14.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with the San Francisco, as 67% of bets are laying the points. This lopsided betting briefly pushed the 49ers up to -10.5. That's when we saw heavy buyback on Seattle, dropping the line back down to -9.5. Seattle offers value as a contrarian divisional dog (only 33% of bets) with late reverse line movement in their favor. Seattle also has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (7-10) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (11-6). Wild Card dogs are 16-8 ATS (67%) over the past five postseasons. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the line from 43.5 to 42.5. This line movement is notable because 60% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. This indicates wiseguy money banking on a lower-scoring game. Weather could play a factor in this one, as the forecast calls for mid 50s with rain and 10-20 MPH winds. In two previous matchups this season, the 49ers beat the Seahawks 27-7 and 21-13 (34 combined points both times). 


8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chargers (10-7) are the 5-seed and just saw their four-game win streak snapped in the regular season finale, losing 31-28 to the Broncos but covering as 6.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Jaguars (9-8) are the 4-seed and are riding a five-game win streak. Jacksonville just beat the Titans 20-16 but failed to cover as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is laying the points with the Chargers. However, despite receiving 60% of bets Los Angeles is still sitting at -2.5. The line has even reached as low as -1 throughout the week. Reading between the lines, all liability and line movement has been on the side of the Jags plus the points at home. Wild Card weekend dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 10-1 ATS (91%) over the past five postseasons. Jacksonville also has heightened contrarian value as an unpopular home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. The Jags are also in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through multiple key numbers. The total hasn't budged much off the opener of 47.5. Some books are inching down to 47, though. Both teams have been "under" teams on the season. Los Angeles is 9-6-2 to the under, including 5-3-1 to the under on the road. Jacksonville is 9-8 to the under, including 6-2 to the under at home.

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