Saturday NFL Week 18 Sharp Report

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Congratulations, New York sports bettors!

At 9 a.m. ET this morning, the Empire State launches their long awaited mobile betting. Bettors will have four sportsbooks to choose from today along with several others in the pipeline. New York is home to 20 million people and is expected to take over as the largest mobile betting market in the country. Simply put, New York going legal is arguably the biggest domino to fall in sports betting legalization since PASPA was overturned in 2018. 

Today, bettors have a loaded slate of two NFL games, 11 NHL games, 6 NBA games and a full College Hoops card to choose from. In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for today's pair of NFL matchups...

 

4:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

This AFC West clash features two teams with contrasting motivations. The Chiefs (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) currently occupy the 2-seed in the AFC playoffs but can catch the Titans for the top spot with a win and Tennessee loss. Kansas City just fell to the Bengals 34-31, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Broncos (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) have been eliminated from the playoffs. Denver has lost three straight and just got crushed by the Chargers 34-13, failing to cover as 8-point road dogs. 

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 10-point road favorite. Early chalk money drove this up to Chiefs -11.5. Over the past 24-hours, we've seen some Broncos buyback hit the market, dropping the line back down to 10.5. At BetMGM, the Chiefs are receiving 68% of bets but 92% of dollars, signaling both public and sharp support. The Chiefs could be worth a look in a teaser (-10.5 to -4.5), which goes through the key numbers of 10 and 7. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 22-9 in early December, covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Denver will be missing two starting cornerbacks due to injury.

We've also seen some over money show up, ticking the total up from 43 to 45. The over is getting 45% of bets but 62% of dollars. The forecast calls for mid 30s with low 4 MPH winds. Brad Rogers, the lead ref, has historically favored overs (45-25, 64%). 

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

This primetime matchup features a pair of postseason bound NFC East rivals. The Cowboys (11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS) have already clinched the division but could rise from the 4-seed to the 2-seed with a win. Dallas is looking to rebound from a 25-22 loss to Arizona last week, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Eagles (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) currently occupy the 7-seed but could rise to the 6-seed with a win. Philadelphia has won four straight and just edged Washington 20-16, although the Eagles failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. 

This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point road favorite. Early in the week, the Cowboys got steamed up all the way to -7. But then COVID issues popped up with the Cowboys, dropping the line from 7 to 4. Some shops are even hinting at a fall to 3.5. Essentially all late action is flowing toward the home dog Eagles. Philadelphia has value as a divisional dog, a dog with a low total and a primetime dog (29-24 ATS, 55% this season). Dallas has ruled out CB Trevon Diggs, OT Tyron Smith and RB Tony Pollard with injuries. 

Respected money has leaned over here, driving the total up from 41.5 to 43.5. These teams met back in late September and Dallas rolled 41-21. The forecast calls for high 20s, clear skies and light 5 MPH winds. 

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