Saturday NFL Divisional Round Sharp Report

rodgers2

One of the best betting weekends of the year is here: the NFL Divisional Round. 

Historically, we've seen an interesting trend emerge over the past decade when it comes to Divisional Round betting. Home favorites in the Divisional Round are 27-8 (77%) straight up. However, home favorites are only 17-17 ATS (50%). In other words, home favorites win the vast majority of the time. But in terms of covering the spread, it's a virtual coin flip. This weekend features four games with all home favorites. 

With this fact in mind, let's discuss where the action is flowing for today's Divisional Round doubleheader...

4:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

The 4-seed Bengals (11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS) are 4-1 over their last five games and just beat the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 1-seed Titans (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) are coming off a bye week after finishing off the regular season with three straight wins. 

This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money laid the points with the Titans early in the week, pushing Tennessee up from -3 to -3.5. Some shops touched 4 and got hit with Bengals 4 buyback. The Titans are receiving 65% of bets and 71% of money at BetMGM. At this point, the Bengals offer some buy-low contrarian value getting the hook. Joe Burrow is 10-7 ATS in his career as a dog. Favorites off a bye in the Divisional Round are just 28-38 ATS (42%) since 2004. Both teams are giving up roughly 21 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where the Bengals are averaging 27 PPG compared to the Titans averaging 24 PPG. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 46.5 to 47.5. The forecast calls for perfect football weather: mid 30s, clear with little to no wind. Currently 73% of bets and 74% of money is on the over. 

8:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

The 6-seed 49ers (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS) pulled off the only upset on Wild Card Weekend, taking down the Cowboys 23-17 as 3.5-point road dogs. Now they travel to Green Bay to face the 1-seed Packers (13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS), who finished the regular season with the best record in the NFL.

This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early money poured in on the Packers, driving this line up to the key number of 6. Then we saw some sharp 49ers buyback at 6, dropping the line down from 6 to 5.5. The Packers are the most lopsided play of the weekend, with 80% of bets and 82% of money laying the points. Green Bay will be a popular teaser with the public, dropping the line down from 5.5 to a virtual pick'em. The 49ers have value as a super contrarian road dog with late movement in their favor. Kyle Shanahan is 26-18 ATS (59%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy G is 14-4 ATS (78%) as a dog. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (62-44 ATS, 58%). This total has dipped slightly from 47.5 to 47, signaling some under sharp money despite 65% of bets taking the over. Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the NFL in terms of pace. The forecast calls for frigid 8-degree weather with 10 MPH winds. 

 

Here are the updated futures odds at BetMGM

Super Bowl 

Packers  350

Chiefs  400

Bills, Bucs  550

Rams  800

Titans  850

49ers  1100

Bengals  1400

 

AFC

Chiefs  165

Bills  225

Titans  300

Bengals  600

 

NFC

Packers  140

Bucs  210

Rams  400

49ers  600

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Always compare odds with games behind, remaining schedule, and strength of schedule. i.e. Braves at +300 offer value just 1 game behind the Mets.

The Lombardi Line: It may be a good time to buy low on NFL teams that have the talent, but haven't executed in the first three weeks.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Amal Shah: Oklahoma / TCU OVER 69

Danny Burke: Texans / Chargers UNDER 45

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-26_at_9.44.58_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close