Saturday NFL and CFB Sharp Report

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Today the weekend kicks off with a plethora of Saturday NFL and College Football games, plus 7 NBA games, 6 NHL games and a full College Basketball slate.

Let's discuss where the money is flowing for today's biggest football games...
 
 
2:15 p.m. ET: UTEP vs Fresno State
 
This is the New Mexico Bowl. UTEP (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) started the season 6-1 but went just 1-4 down the stretch, most recently falling to UAB 42-25 and failing to cover as 13.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Fresno State (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) went 5-1 down the stretch and just beat San Jose State 40-9, easily covering as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 13-point neutral site favorite. We've seen this line fall from 13 to 11.5, signaling sharp action grabbing the dog and the points. UTEP is receiving 63% of bets but 79% of money at BetMGM, a "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy. Bowl dogs playing a team who missed a Bowl game the previous year are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Fresno State will miss head coach Kalen DeBoer, who left to coach Washington. Fresno QB Jake Haener is also questionable to play after initially entering the transfer portal. 
 
 
5:45 pm. ET: Eastern Michigan vs Liberty
 
This is the LendingTree Bowl. Eastern Michigan (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) went 1-2 down the stretch, losing to Central Michigan 31-10 and failing to cover as 8.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Liberty (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) lost three straight to end the regular season, most recently falling to Army 31-16 as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Liberty listed as a 7.5-point neutral site favorite. At BetMGM, 59% of bets are grabbing the dog Eastern Michigan yet we've seen this line move further to Liberty (-7.5 to -9.5). This indicates sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite. Liberty star QB Malik Willis decided not to opt out for the draft and will play in this game, which could provide a motivational boost for teammates and the program. 
 
 
8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
 
This AFC clash features a pair of playoff hopefuls coming off byes.
The Patriots (9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS) have won seven straight and just took down the Bills 14-10, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Similarly, the Colts (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) are 6-2 over their last eight games and just waxed the Texans 31-10, easily covering as 10-point road favorites. 
 
This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Some shops even opened New England as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is happy to grab the points with the streaking Patriots, yet we've seen this line flip to Colts -2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Indianapolis. At this point, New England has buy-low teaser value ( 2.5 to  8.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Road dogs 7 or less are 59-25 ATS (70%) this season. Saturday road teams are 29-15 ATS (66%) over the past decade. 
 
We've also seen some sharp money hit the over, steaming the total from 44 to 45.5. At BetMGM, the over is getting 56% of bets but 89% of money, a clear wiseguy bet discrepancy to the over. 
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