Saturday NBA Sharp Report (5-29)

May 29, 2021 01:20 AM

Today, we have 18 MLB games, 4 NBA playoff games and 2 NHL playoff games. For extensive Saturday betting analysis, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves and late sharp action across all the major sports. We'll also check in with Thomas Gable at The Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Saturday NBA playoff games...

1:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat

This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first round. The Bucks lead 3-0 and have a chance to eliminate the Heat with a victory this afternoon. This line opened with the Bucks listed as a 5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Bucks, expecting another easy win and cover. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line either remain frozen at 5 or fall to 4.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Heat, with pros grabbing the points, not laying them. Miami is super contrarian in a heavily bet desperation game. We've also seen some under money show up. This total opened at 222.5 and has fallen to 221.5 despite a majority of bets taking the over. This signals some pro money hitting the under, forcing the oddsmakers to adjust the line downward. The under is 2-1 this series. One variable to keep in mind: Bucks starting guard Donte DiVincenzo is out for the rest of the postseason after sustaining an injury in Game 3.

4 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers

This is Game 4 of the Western Conference first round. The Nuggets lead to series 2-1. The teams split the first two games in Denver, then the Nuggets earned a 120-115 win in Game 3 in Portland, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. In today's pivotal Game 4, the Blazers opened as 3.5-point home favorites. Spread bets are split down the middle, yet we've seen Portland move from -3.5 to -4, signaling some respected money in their favor. Playoff favorites are 16-12 ATS (57%) this postseason. Short playoff favorites -5 or less are 11-5 ATS (69%). Pros have also targeted this under, as we've seen the total fall from 228.5 to 227.5. This is notable because the over is 3-0 this series, yet sharp money is still going under based on the reverse line move downward. Leading 2-1 in the series, the Nuggets are -200 to advance to the next round (odds via BetMGM). The Blazers are + 165 dogs to come back and win the series.

7 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards

This is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round. The 76ers lead the series 2-0. Philadelphia won the opener 125-118, although they failed to cover as 8-point home favorites. Then the 76ers blew out the Wizards 120-95 in Game 2, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. In tonight's pivotal Game 3, Philadelphia opened as a 5.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be united on laying the points with the 76ers, as we've seen Philadelphia move from -5.5. to -6. Road favorites are 3-1 ATS this playoffs. Favorites in which the line stays the same or moves in their favor are 15-10 ATS (60%). Up 2-0 in the series, the 76ers are -10000 favorites to advance. The Wizards are + 1800 dogs to come back and win the series. The total has ticked down slightly from 228 to 227.5, signaling some respected under money.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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