Saturday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

celtics

3:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 1-1. After dropping the series opener 101-89, Boston bounced back with a 109-86 win in Game 2, easily covering as 4-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Milwaukee. This line opened with the Bucks listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk at home with the defending champions. This lopsided support pushed the Bucks up from -2.5 to -3 early on. But then we saw a flood of sharp Celtics buyback hit the market, dropping the line down from  3 to  2 over the past 48-hours. Essentially, late wiseguy money is breaking with Boston plus the points. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 213 to 212.5. The under is 39-20 (66%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 21-9 (70%). The under is 2-0 so far this series. Marcus Smart, who missed Game 2 with a thigh contusion, is expected to play for Boston. With the series tied 1-1, Boston is a -125 favorite to advance to the next round. Milwaukee is a +105 dog. 

 

8:30 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 1-1. The Warriors took the opener 117-116 and then the Grizzlies bounced back with a 106-101 win in Game 2, winning outright as a 2-point home dog. Now the series shifts to Golden State. This line opened with the Warriors listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is relatively split, yet we've seen Golden State tick up from -6.5 to -7, signaling some sharp action laying the points. Favorites are 36-23 ATS (61%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 21-9 ATS (70%). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 226.5 to 225.5. When the total is 225 or more, the under is 13-3 (81%) this postseason. Tied 1-1, the Warriors are -300 favorites to win the series. Memphis is a +240 dog. 

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

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