Saturday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

celtics

Today the weekend kicks off with four NBA playoff games, 16 MLB games and 12 NHL games. With playoff basketball taking center stage right now, let's dive into where smart money is leaning for several postseason matchups today...

 

2 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors

The 76ers lead this series 3-0 and can sweep their way into the second round with a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a 104-101 victory in Game 3, covering as 2-point road favorites thanks to a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Joel Embiid. In this early afternoon rematch, the 76ers opened as 3-point road favorites. The public has seen enough and is rushing to the window to lay the points with Philadelphia. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged. It has even briefly dipped to 2.5. at some shops. This signals a sharp line freeze on Toronto plus the points with their season on the line. We've also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 214 to 213.5. Unders are 19-10 (66%) this postseason. The under is 2-1 in this series. Leading 3-0, the 76ers are -10000 favorites to win the series. The Raptors are +2000. 

 

4:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz

The Mavericks lead this series 2-1 after posting a 126-118 victory in Game 3, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs. In today's rematch, the Jazz opened as 4.5-point home favorites. The public is down on Utah and rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Dallas. However, we've actually seen the line move further to Utah (-4.5 to -6) despite the Jazz being the unpopular play. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Utah, with pros fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian favorite Jazz. Favorites are 20-9 ATS (69%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 13-4 ATS (76%). Respected money has also hit the over, raising the total from 211 to 212.5. The over is 2-1 this series. Leading 2-1, the Mavs are -190 favorites to win the series. The Jazz are +155 dogs. Keep an eye on the status of Mavs' superstar Luka Doncic. He has been upgraded to questionable and "optimistic" about playing today. If he plays, expect this line to fall back to Dallas. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets

The Celtics lead this series 2-0 after storming back from a 17-point deficit in Game 2, winning 114-107 and covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Brooklyn. This line opened with the Nets listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public isn't quitting the Nets and expects a bounce back performance at home. However, despite receiving heavy public support, Brooklyn has fallen from -3.5 to -3. This indicates some sharp wiseguy support for Boston plus the points. This move was also tied to Boston big man Robert Williams being upgraded to questionable for the game. Pro money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 223.5 to 222.5. Leading 2-0, Boston is a -350 favorite to win the series. Brooklyn is +260. The Celtics are now the favorite to win the Eastern Conference at +210. Boston has the third-best odds to win the NBA Title at +500. 

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