Saturday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


8:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

This is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The series is tied 1-1. After dropping the opener 118-107 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs, the Celtics bounced back with a big 127-102 win in Game 2, easily winning outright as 1-point road dogs. Now the series shifts to Boston. 

Tonight's game opened with the Celtics listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to back. However, despite this even ticket count, we've seen Boston creep up from -6 to -6.5. This signals some wiseguy money laying the points with the Celtics at home. Favorites are 45-34 ATS (57%) this postseason. Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor are 25-14 ATS (64%). Home favorites of 5-points or more are 22-13 ATS (63%). Favorites are 55-24 (70%) straight up. 

We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 208.5 to 207.5. This sharp under action is notable in its irony as both of the first two games have flown way over. Unders are 50-29 (63%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 29-13 (69%). 

With the series tied 1-1, the Celtics are a -300 favorite to advance. The Heat are +240 underdogs. Boston has the 2nd-best odds to win the NBA Title at +175, trailing only the Warriors (-105). 

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