Saturday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

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Favorites and unders both went a perfect 2-0 on Friday as the Hawks (-2.5) beat the Cavaliers 107-101 and the Pelicans (-1.5) took care of business against the Clippers 105-101. Both teams saw line movement in their favor as Atlanta moved from -2 to -2.5 and the Pelicans flipped from  4 to -1.5 following the positive COVID test for Paul George. Both totals also got hit by smart under money (Hawks/Cavs 225 to 223 and Pelicans/Clippers 217 to 216) and both unders prevailed. Favorites improved to 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in the NBA playoffs while unders move to perfect 6-0. 

Will the favorite and under trend continue? Let's discuss a trio of Game 1 playoff openers today receiving sharp action from respected bettors...

 

1 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks

The Jazz (49-33 SU, 33-46-3 ATS) enter as the 5-seed while the Mavericks (52-30 SU, 47-33-2 ATS) enjoy home court advantage as the 4-seed. This line opened with Dallas listed as a short 3-point home favorite. We've seen a massive line move to Utah following the news that Dallas star Luka Doncic will miss this game with a calf strain. With Doncic out, the line has flipped from Jazz  +3 to -5. Essentially, the Doncic injury fallout is worth roughly eight points to the spread. According to BetMGM, the Jazz are receiving 56% of bets but 71% of money, signaling a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. For those looking to back Utah but wary of laying the worst of the spread, the Jazz are -210 on the moneyline. We've also seen the total plummet from 217.5 to 209.5. Both teams were "under" teams in the regular season, with Utah 44-37 to the under (24-16 to the under on the road) and Dallas 49-31 to the under (29-11 to the under at home). Utah has also moved from -115 to -300 to win the series, receiving a sharp split of only 21% bets but a whopping 63% of cash.

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies

The Timberwolves (47-36 SU, 44-38-1 ATS) enter as the 7-seed and just edged the Clippers 109-104 in the play-in game, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies (56-26 SU, 52-29-1 ATS) enter as the the 2-seed and just finished with the second best record in the NBA. This Game 1 matchup opened with Memphis listed as a 7-point home favorite. Despite 79% of bets laying the points with Memphis at home, we've seen this line dip from 7 to 6.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Timberwolves plus the points, who enjoy some momentum having just gotten a postseason win under their belt. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here. The total opened at 235 and has been bet up to 236.5. Both teams were big "over teams" this season, with the Wolves an NBA-best 50-33 to the over (including 30-11 to the over on the road) and the Grizzlies 42-36 to the over (21-18 to the over at home). The Grizzlies are receiving 71% of bets but 97% of money to win the series, moving from -300 to -375. This signals both pro and Joe support for Memphis to advance to the next round. 

 

8:30 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors

The Nuggets (48-34 SU, 37-45 ATS) enter as the 6-seed while the Warriors (53-29 SU, 41-37-4 ATS) enjoy home court advantage as the 3-seed. This line opened with Golden State listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early on, we saw a bit of a line freeze as the spread refused to budge off the opener. But then we got positive injury news for the Warriors with Steph Curry "good to go" for the opener following his knee injury. With Curry healthy, the Warriors got steamed up from -4.5 to -6.5. Currently 68% of bets but 83% of money is laying the chalk with Golden State, signaling a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy in favor of the Warriors, who are also healthy and seem to have benefited from a week off. Smart money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 225.5 to 223. The Warriors were a big under team in the regular season (45-35-2 to the under, including 24-15-2 to the under at home). The Nuggets are a trendy upset pick to win the series, receiving 77% of wagers. However, despite this public support, the Warriors have moved from -200 to -250 to win the series, indicating wiseguy "Fade the Trendy Dog" action in favor of Golden State (only 23% bets but 53% money). 

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