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Saturday NBA Finals Game 5 Sharp Report

July 17, 2021 06:29 AM

Today, we have 16 MLB games, Game 5 of the NBA Finals and UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs Moises. For extensive Saturday betting analysis, be sure to join Dave Ross, Michael Lombardi and myself LIVE on The Lombardi Line from 10 a.m.-noon ET. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves across all the major sports. We'll also check in with our friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight’s pivotal NBA Finals showdown...

  

9 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns

This is Game 5 of the NBA Finals. The series is tied 2-2. After falling behind 0-2, the Bucks have won two straight. Milwaukee is coming off a thrilling 109-103 come-from-behind win in Game 4, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Phoenix. This Game 5 line opened with the Suns listed as a consensus 4-point home favorite. Some shops opened Phoenix -3.5 and immediately got bet up to -4. At times, this line has briefly risen to -4.5 and then come back down to -4. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the side of the Suns. Phoenix has value as a short favorite -5 or less (36-20 ATS, 64% this postseason). The Suns are also a buy-low home favorite coming off a loss. Phoenix is 10-3 ATS a favorite this postseason, including 7-2 ATS as a home favorite. Home favorites are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the NBA Finals. We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 218 to 218.5. The over is 2-1-1 this series. With the series tied 2-2, Phoenix is a -150 favorite to win the NBA Title (60% implied probability). Milwaukee is a 125 dog. 

Player Props to Consider

Chris Paul over 2.5 turnovers (-135)

*Paul turned the ball over 5 times in Game 4. He has gone over this number in 3 of 4 games in the Finals. He is averaging 4.3 turnovers in the Finals. 

Jrue Holiday over 12.5 rebounds plus assists (-135)

*Holiday combined for 14 rebounds plus assists in Game 4. He has gone over this number in 3 of 4 games in the Finals. Holiday is averaging 8 assists and 6 rebounds in the Finals. 

Deandre Ayton over 13.5 rebounds plus assists (-135)

*Ayton combined for 23 rebounds plus assists in Game 4. He has gone over this number in 3 of 4 games in the Finals. Ayton is averaging 14 rebounds and 2.3 assists in the Finals. 

Pat Connaughton over 13.5 points plus rebounds plus assists (-130)

*Connaughton combined for 21 points plus rebounds plus assists in Game 4. He has gone over this number in 3 of 4 games in the Finals. He is averaging 10.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists in the Finals. 

Jae Crowder over 6.5 rebounds (-140)

*Crowder pulled down 8 rebounds in Game 4. He has gone over this number in 3 of 4 games in the Finals. He is averaging 8.3 rebounds in the Finals.

NBA Finals MVP (via BetMGM)

Giannis 130

Paul 190

Booker 250

Middleton 2200

How many games will the series last? 

6 games ( 105)

7 games (-125)

Exact Series Outcome

Suns win 4-2 ( 300)

Suns win 4-3 ( 190)

Bucks win 4-2 ( 300)

Bucks win 4-3 ( 350)

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on

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