Saturday NBA and MLB Sharp Report (6-19)

June 19, 2021 01:10 AM

Today, we have 16 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game, 1 NHL playoff game and UFC Fight Night: The Korean Zombie vs Ige.

For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves and sharp action across all the major sports. We'll also check in with Thomas Gable at The Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Saturday games.

4:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (33-34) at San Francisco Giants (45-25)

The Giants took last night's series opener 5-3, cashing as -140 home favorites. It was the 5th straight win for the Giants, who now own the best record in MLB. In this afternoon's rematch, the Phillies start ace Aaron Nola (5-4, 3.69 ERA) and the Giants counter with veteran lefty Alex Wood (6-3, 3.71 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em with both sides listed at -105 odds. Sharps have pounced on the streaking Giants, driving San Francisco up from -105 to -120. Non-division home favorites are 231-139 (62.4%) this season. Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more off a win 88-49 (64.2%). The Giants are 18-3 as home favorites this season. San Francisco is 23-9 at home. Philadelphia is 12-22 on the road. There also appears to be over liability, as the total is 7.5 with the over juiced to -115. The forecast calls for mid 60s and 10 MPH winds out to center.

8:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets

This is Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks are coming off a clutch 104-89 win in Game 6, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. After falling down in the series 0-2, the Bucks have won three of the last four games in this matchup. This line opened at a true pick'em. The public is hammering the Nets, with roughly three out of four bets backing Kevin Durant and the home team. There appears to be some respected money on Brooklyn as well, as we've seen the Nets move from pick'em to -1. All movement has been toward Brooklyn, turning them into the favorite. The Nets have value as a home team off a blowout loss of 10-points or more (covered roughly 57% ATS over the past decade). Playoff favorites are 43-28 ATS (61%) this postseason. Shorts playoff favorites -5 or less are 28-16 ATS (64%). Pros have also targeted the under. The total opened at 216 and has fallen to 215. The under is 5-0-1 this series. When the total is 215 or less, the under is 8-3 (73%) this postseason. Historically, Game 7 unders have been a smart bet due to the tired legs of a grueling series combined with the emphasis on defense in an elimination game.

Updated NBA Title Odds at BetMGM

Suns + 250

Nets + 275

Clippers + 350

Bucks + 500

76ers + 800

Hawks + 3500

10:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have upset the Rays in the first two games of this series, winning 6-5 as + 160 home dogs and 5-1 as a -105 home pick'em. In tonight's rematch, the Rays send out lefty Josh Fleming (6-4, 3.30 ERA) and the Mariners give the ball to young righty Logan Gilbert (2-2, 4.13 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -125 road favorite and Seattle a + 115 home dog. Wiseguys like the Rays to get back to their winning ways and have steamed Tampa Bay up from -125 to -135. The Rays are 24-14 as a favorite this season, 24-14 on the road and 26-17 against righties. Tampa also has value as a favorite with a low total (8). The fewer amount of expected runs scored, the more likely the runs are to come from the "better" team. Tampa Bay will rely on their bats in this one. The Rays are hitting .231, which ranks 21st. Seattle is hitting .214, which ranks 29th. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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