Saturday MLB Sharp Report

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3:07 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (11-9) at Toronto Blue Jays (13-8)

The Astros stole Friday night's series opener 11-7, cashing as +110 road dogs. In this afternoon's rematch, Houston hands the ball to righty Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.60 ERA) while Toronto counters with fellow righty Jose Berrios (1-0, 4.91 ERA). This line opened with the Blue Jays listed as a short -135 home favorite and the Astros a +125 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to back Toronto in a bounce-back spot. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Blue Jays fall from -135 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on road dog Houston (+125 to +115). Houston has value as a contrarian road dog and a dog with a high total. We could be looking at another high scoring game as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. The forecast calls for mid 50s with the roof open and 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to left at Rogers Centre. 

 

6:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (11-9) at Miami Marlins (11-8)

The Marlins took last night's Interleague series opener 8-6, cashing as a short -110 home favorite. The Marlins have now won six straight while the Mariners have lost now lost three straight. In tonight's rematch, Seattle sends out lefty Robbie Ray (2-1, 3.91 ERA) and Miami taps fellow southpaw Jesus Luzardo (1-1, 3.77 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Marlins a +105 home dog. The public is siding with Seattle to bounce back today, yet we've seen this line fall to a pick'em, with both sides roughly -105. This signals pro money riding the hot hand and backing Miami at home. Pros are also expecting a lower scoring game as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -120. Unders are 169-117 (59%) this season. If the roof remains open, the forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from right at Marlins Park. The Marlins are 5-3 at home this season. The Mariners are 4-7 on the road. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (8-12) at Milwaukee Brewers (14-7)

The Brewers crushed the Cubs 11-1 in last night's series opener, easily cashing as -135 home favorites. Milwaukee has now won four straight while the Cubs fall to just 2-8 over their last ten games. In tonight's rematch, Chicago taps lefty Justin Steele (1-2, 5.40 ERA) while the Brewers send out fellow lefty Eric Lauer (1-0, 2.20 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -150 home favorite and Chicago a +140 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better team at home who's playing better as of late, steaming the Brew Crew up from -150 to -160. Milwaukee has value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). Pros have also leaned under here, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. If the roof stays open, the forecast calls for low 50s with 15-20 MPH winds blowing in from center. 

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